EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Gas deflates ahead of the Putin-Trump call, metals contained amid APAC updates

WTI/Brent: +1.0%/+0.9%

• Benchmarks have been lifted after a number of updates over the weekend, with updates on the Ukraine front being overshadowed by US strikes on Houthi militant sites in Yemen.


• Brent (+0.6%) and WTI (+0.9%) have each come off APAC highs, both still firmer by just under USD 0.70/bbl, attempting to rebound after settling essentially flat last week and with marked pressure over the three weeks preceding that.


• Going into this a little more, US President Trump ordered “decisive and powerful” military action against the Houthis in Yemen, while the Pentagon stated that US strikes will persist for days or weeks.


• Elsewhere in the Middle East, Israel’s Prime Minister’s office confirmed continued ceasefire talks in line with a US proposal for the release of hostages.


• On trade, US Secretary of State Rubio noted that the US may engage in bilateral negotiations on new trade arrangements post-tariff imposition.


• Today’s calendar remains light, with no energy-specific events, aside from a White House press briefing, which may give a little colour on the potential Trump-Putin call.

Dutch TTF: -1.1%

• European gas is lower, after optimistic updates from Trump over the weekend, where he said he would speak to Russian President Putin on Tuesday.


• Dutch TTF opened lower and has since traded sideways and now resides in the middle of a EUR 41.25-42.10/MWh range.


• One point of note for the talks will be on power facilities, after Trump told reporters he wanted to talk about "power plants" and “land” with Putin.

Gold: +0.3%

• A touch firmer with the overall risk tone slightly tepid. As it stands, the yellow metal is yet to deviate too far from the unchanged mark in a slim sub-10/oz band just shy of the USD 3k/oz handle.


• As a reminder, the ATH from last week stands at USD 3004.94/oz.


• Action so far, while firmer, is fairly limited in nature with newsflow a touch slower than has been the case in recent sessions as we await upcoming US data points and then the latest Atlanta Fed tracker. In addition to geopolitical drivers that are scheduled for later in the week.

Copper: +0.1%

• Flat, despite the broadly stronger APAC handover and the latest activity data from China where Industrial Production topped forecasts and Retail Sales matched estimates. However, gains for the region were capped as Urban Unemployment increased and House Prices remained in deep contraction territory.


• In addition, the region was bolstered on Friday with some attributing it to expectations of imminent Chinese support and a possible RRR cut, a move which is yet to arise though we have seen a PBoC Official remake that they will use policy tools such as the RRR and relending and discount facilities.


• 3M LME Copper is at the mid-point of a USD 9.77-9.84k band, with the current peak just shy of Friday’s USD 9.85k best which is the strongest the base metal has been since it last topped USD 10k in November 2024.


• Elsewhere, Trump reiterated his firm stance on tariffs, stating there would be no exemptions on steel and aluminium duties and confirming reciprocal and sectoral tariffs will be imposed on April 2nd.

17 Mar 2025 - 09:55- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk