EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Gas continues to deflate, crude rangebound & metals advance

WTI/Brent: +0.3%/+0.3%

• Firmer, but only very modestly with action contained to slim USD 0.50/bbl parameters throughout the European morning.


• Specifics have been light as we await macro drivers via Trump and US data while on the geopolitical front for the Middle-East to see if the hostage release proceeds as planned on Saturday. On that, Axios’ Ravid cited an Israeli official saying "It seems that the crisis has been postponed until next week".


• Elsewhere, as we await updates on a potential Ukraine-Russia ceasefire there is a lot of attention on a WSJ interview with US VP Vance. Within this, one of the most pertinent lines is Vance saying the option of sending US troops to Ukraine if Russia fails to negotiate in good faith remains “on the table”, a remark the WSJ highlights is much tougher than the Defence Secretary earlier in the week who said the US wouldn’t pledge troops.


• Overall, Vance said he thinks “there is a deal that is going to come out of this that’s going to shock a lot of people”, via WSJ.


• WTI and Brent currently find themselves holding in the middle of USD 71.26-74/bbl and USD 74.96-75.56/bbl parameters, which are marginal compared to the over USD 3/bbl range that has printed WTD.

TTF: -4.0%

• On a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, Goldman Sachs outlines two scenarios for gas. Firstly, and most likely, flows via the Ukrainian pipeline return to 2023/24 averages then gas prices could fall by over 15% over time.


• Secondly, if flows return to pre-conflict levels then prices could drop by as much as 50%; further to this, if flows were to recommence through Poland or Nordstream then this could have a larger impact, but this is regarded as very unlikely.


• As it stands, and reflecting the ongoing progress towards a ceasefire, March TTF is under continued pressure and below the EUR 50/MW mark and approaching lows from end-January when TTF was sub EUR 48/MW; note, the latest reports indicate the meeting between US VP Vance and Ukrainian President Zelensky has been delayed until 16:00GMT, reason not yet clear.

Gold: +0.2%

• Gold likely continues to benefit from front-loading action, exacerbating haven appeal, as Trump continues to make tariff announcements. On this, Deutsche Bank writes that while prices may consolidate when inventories get to sufficient levels they see the risk of an aggressive pullback as limited and remain structurally bullish.


• Firmer on the session, benefitting from the modest USD pressure and somewhat rangebound cautious tone as we await US data and Trump this afternoon. At a USD 2938/oz peak which is just shy of Tuesday’s USD 2942/oz WTD best, a figure which is also the ATH.

Copper: +1.1%

• Firmer and benefitting from the delayed implementation of Trump’s latest tariff updates. A delay which provides hope for deals and/or exemptions to be made in the days/weeks ahead.


• While firmer for now, the complex awaits US data but of course the latest batch of orders from POTUS at 18:00GMT.


• 3M LME Copper at a USD 9.6k peak, markedly higher than the USD 9.48k close on Thursday, continuing the gains seen in APAC trade where Chinese markets in particular posted a strong session.

14 Feb 2025 - 10:00- ForexEU Research- Source: Newsquawk