EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Eyes on Russia-Ukraine with Zelensky flagging a fresh Russian offensive ahead of Friday talks

Crude Oil: WTI Sep U/C, Brent Oct U/C

• Crude futures are rangebound amid light energy-specific newsflow and as participants await upcoming key events, including the Trump/Putin meeting on Friday.


• Earlier today, Russian security services reported that an attack on a senior Defence Ministry official was foiled on the outskirts of Moscow, according to Al Arabiya. This did not influence prices at the time, with a wider focus likely on the Trump-Putin meeting this Friday.


• On that note, the two are to meet in Alaska on Friday (15th Aug), and Trump today said it is a "feel-out meeting", and said Zelensky could also go; Trump added he thinks the Putin meeting will be good, but might be bad. The US President said there will be some swapping and changes in land, and they are going to try to get some territory back for Ukraine. Ahead of it, reports suggest Putin demands Ukraine cede Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea, for Russia to halt the war, something which is unlikely Zelensky will agree to as he is unwilling to give up any Ukrainian land. Despite saying this, The Telegraph said that Ukraine could agree to stop fighting and cede territory already held by Russia as part of a European-backed plan for peace.


• Furthermore, Ukrainian President Zelensky posted, "We see that the Russian army is not preparing to end the war. On the contrary, they are making movements that indicate preparations for new offensive operations."


• Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe the minimal moves on nat gas prices following the announcement of the Trump-Putin meeting "reflect the market’s scepticism that the meeting might result in a lasting peace agreement."With Ukraine, there is no significant shift in Russian gas or LNG supply.


• Meanwhile, on the trade front, the US and China finally extended their 90-day trade truce for another 90 days, "while all other elements of the agreement will remain the same".


• WTI currently resides in a 64.12-65.08/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.70-67.58/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold +0.3%, Silver +0.8%, Palladium +1.4%

• Spot gold ekes out mild gains after it nursed some losses overnight after yesterday's retreat, and with an indecisive reaction to President Trump's announcement that the precious metal will not be tariffed.


• Price action this morning has been choppy for the yellow metal but within a tight parameter.


• Ahead, all eyes are on US CPI, but that being said, the FOMC will get to see another PCE, NFP, and CPI release before their next meeting.


• Spot gold resides in a USD 3,340.69-3,357.94/oz range, compared to yesterday's USD 3,340.09-3,404.19/oz range.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper +0.3%

• Copper futures edged higher amid the mostly positive risk appetite in Asia and the 90-day US-China tariff truce extension, which was as expected.


• Overnight, iron ore prices gained following reports from China that several steel mills had been told by authorities that they will need to temporarily halt production later this month amid air pollution concerns.


• Elsewhere, Chile's Codelco copper production rose 17.3% Y/Y in June to 120.2k tons, while Escondida copper production fell 33% Y/Y in June to 76.4k tons and Collahuasi copper production fell 29.1% Y/Y in June to 34.3k tons.


• 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,733.22-9,789.00/t range.

12 Aug 2025 - 10:20- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk