EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Energy pressured while base metals diverge

WTI/Brent: -1.4%/-1.4%

• Crude remains soft, price action dominated by trade rather than oil-specific headlines. Brent has lost around a dollar, to USD 64/bbl while WTI posts the same losses on the day, residing around USD 61.20/bbl. Crude-specific newsflow has been light.


• On the SPR, US Energy Secretary Wright said the country will continue to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) due to attractive prices. He said he is asking Congress for further funding to speed the process of filling the reserve. ING notes that the SPR at a little over 397mln barrels, up from a low of 347mln barrels in 2023, but below the 656mln barrels it stood at in mid-2020. They also highlight the capacity of the SPR is around 700mln barrels, which assumes that refilling the reserve would cost around USD 65/bbl.


• Monday was a somewhat quiet day with crude settling off lows, but still well in the red, spurred by articles prior to the weekend and a dismal Dallas Fed manufacturing print showing another indication of a stagflationary environment, with new orders falling, and inflation rising.


• Also on Monday, Spain suffered the worst blackout in European history, affecting 55mln people. Specifically for oil, Repsol’s 5 refineries were affected, while Spain's Moeve said its oil refineries were halted in the power outage. According to Statista, Repsol had a capacity of some 552,260 BPD in 2023.


• Kazakhstan Q1 oil exports +7% Y/Y to 1.63mln BPD, according to Reuters calculations and official data

Dutch TTF: -3.3%

• TTF is lower on the day, after finishing Monday’s session modestly higher, surrounding a number of updates including the blackout in Spain and a three-day ceasefire proposal from Russia.


• With Spain and Portugal’s blackout almost fully resolved (Portugal's power restored to 100%, Spain’s 99.95% - both updates from this morning), today’s attention now shifts to Russia's ceasefire proposal, announced for May 8th-11th. As it stands, Russia says Ukraine is not responding to the proposal.


• Price action this morning has been relatively uneventful, the benchmark rose at the open, though gains were quickly reversed, where it printed a low of EUR 31.36/MWh.

Gold: -0.9%

• Spot gold continues its reversal from recent record highs, with a number of risk events ahead including US consumer confidence and pivotal speakers such as Commerce Secretary Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Bessent who are likely to speak on auto tariffs.


• The dollar is modestly firmer, with DXY +0.14%, US yields are firmer across the curve and more so at short end; as a reminder, no cash trade overnight due to the Japanese holiday.


• The yellow metal edged lower throughout most of the APAC session but saw a modest rebound as European participants came to the table. Thus far, today’s low has been recorded at USD 3314/oz, with a high of USD 3359/oz.

3M LME Copper: +0.6%

• Copper is a little firmer after a broad base metals bid this morning, lifting it from near session lows of USD 9368/t, to session highs of USD 9455/t, currently holding just off best.


• China's copper supplies are on track to be depleted in just a few months as the market suffers one of the greatest tightening shocks due to fears of US tariffs, according to commodities trading house Mercuria cited by FT.

29 Apr 2025 - 10:00- MetalsEU Research- Source: Newsquawk