EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Energy firmer with gas inflating on damaged Ukrainian infrastructure, XAU awaits NFP

WTI/Brent: +1.2%/+1.2%

• Crude is on a firmer footing and currently trade just off session highs, with both WTI and Brent up around USD 0.80/bbl on the session. Support caught primarily at the cash open, at a time when fundamentals were light, but potentially as participants were digesting constructive updates from the US administration.
• US President Trump signed amendments to Canadian and Mexican tariffs, making USMCA-compliant products exempt from levies until 2nd April; comments which did lift prices a touch at the time.
• In yesterday’s session, crude caught a bid as US Treasury Secretary Bessent spoke about Iran and said they are going to shut down Iran's oil sectors and drone manufacturing capabilities.
• In other news:
• Phillips 66 (PSX) reports upset at Wood River Illinois refinery (103K/bpd)
• Qatar set April Marine Crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 2.10/bbl April Land Crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 1.85/bbl.
• Russian Foreign Ministry says Russia's Ryabkov met with Iranian envoy; discussed efforts around Iranian nuclear program

Dutch TTF +3.7%

• Natgas prices began the morning softer, continuing the sell off seen in yesterday’s secession, along with optimism surrounding Thursday's EU conference, which turned out to be a dud.
• Though the benchmark recently caught a bid after reports that a Russian attack “significantly” damaged Ukraine’s gas production facilities. (follows overnight reports of a “massive missile and drone attack”)
• Dutch TTF currently trades higher by 3.7%, at the EUR 39.70/MWh mark following these supply reports.

Gold: +0.3%

• Spot gold traded sideways overnight, but picked up a touch in European trade, fuelled by the weaker dollar, which trades below the 104.00 mark ahead of the NFP report.
• The yellow metal is firmer by 0.3%, above the USD 2900/oz mark, and within a USD 2,896.83-2,923.06/oz range on the session.
• China gold reserves rose in February; purchases resumed for the fourth straight month.

Copper: -0.3%

• Copper futures are subdued amid the mostly negative risk tone, with its biggest buyer, China, printing weaker-than-expected trade data.
• In terms of price action, the metal has traded sideways in the morning, currently down 0.3% at USD 9,673/t and within a range of USD 9,608.6-9,700.55/t.
• US President Trump said, most tariffs which begin April 2nd, and will be reciprocal, with no changes to steel and aluminium tariffs. Mexico’s President Sheinbaum confirmed an exemption until April 2nd but questioned the logic of reciprocal tariffs.
• UBS sees price level of USD 1000/oz for Palladium in 2025; expects a deficit of around 300k/oz, or 3% demand in 2025; expects it to remain a laggard in the precious metals space.