EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude & XAU bolstered with geopols in focus as we await the Putin-Trump call

WTI/Brent: +1.2%/+1.2%

• Crude futures continue their geopolitically induced gains, as a slew of Middle East headlines supported benchmarks overnight, both WTI and Brent up around USD 1.0/bbl and at session highs of USD 68.50/bbl and USD 72.19/bbl.


• Strength which has been seen since the early hours with gains coming gradually but continuously with macro catalysts light as traders position themselves for the US President Trump-Russian President Putin call, which the Kremlin said would take place between 13:00-15:00GMT.


• Looking to the Middle East, Israeli officials, including PM Netanyahu, directed intensified actions on Hamas leaders, and WSJ reported that Trump approved the resumption of Israeli operations


• In terms of potential bearish factors, US Energy Secretary Wright stated that more pipeline projects are expected to move forward and Trump posted on Truth Social that he has authorised his administration to "immediately begin producing Energy with BEAUTIFUL, CLEAN COAL."


• Most recently, we have seen the Kazakhstan energy minister step down from his post and Nigerian oil firm Renaissance report that it is aware of an explosion on a major oil pipeline and is investigating the matter.

Dutch TTF: -0.6%

• TTF is pressured ahead of the highly anticipated Trump-Putin call, where they are expected to talk about "power plants" and “land”, as Trump told reporters.


• The European benchmark is lower by 0.64%, at session lows of EUR 40.60/MWh, modest pressure which comes ahead of the mentioned call and the potential for progress towards a conflict resolution to stem from it.


• Elsewhere on the supply front, Ukraine's Naftogaz and Poland's Orlen signed a contract for the supply of an additional 100mln cubic metres of LNG, Naftogaz says that the gas supplied by Orlen is US-origin LNG, with no sustained reaction in gas benchmarks on this update.

Gold: +0.9%

• Gold has advanced past the USD 3000/oz mark and more than eclipsed last week’s USD 3004/oz ATH with the new record peak at USD 3028.47/oz and counting.


• The yellow metal sees this buying amid this week’s key risk events, including the Geopolitics discussed above, and Central bank meetings for the Fed, BoJ, BoE and others all potentially factoring.


• Technicians note that the yellow metal has essentially matched a long-term trend resistance point at USD 3029.

Aluminium: -1.0%

• As for other metals, the EU is set to announce a probe into aluminium imports to “protect the bloc’s industry from an expected surge in cheap imports displaced by US tariffs”, on Wednesday. Aluminium is the base underperformer in base-space, down nearly a percent on the day.


• ING notes European aluminium premiums have been falling, with the US premiums surging to record highs. They suggest that some suppliers to the US are already redirecting sales to Europe to avoid Trump’s tariffs.

18 Mar 2025 - 10:25- ForexEU Research- Source: Newsquawk