EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude trims yesterday's losses, base metals trade flat/mixed ahead of FOMC minutes

Crude Oil: WTI Oct +0.9% Brent Oct +0.9%

• Crude futures attempt to trim some of the prior day's losses, induced by geopolitics as renewed efforts are made to temper down the Russia-Ukraine conflict.


• This morning, the Russian Embassy in India said despite political situation, approximately same level of oil will be imported by India; India-Russia trade is exp. to grow 10% annually. As a reminder, Washington slapped India with a 25% penalty linked to oil purchases.


• Back to trade, the recovery in prices is limited following mixed private sector inventory data - US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.4mln (exp. -1.8mln), Distillate +0.5mln (exp. +0.9mln), Gasoline +1.0mln (exp. -0.9mln), Cushing -0.1mln. Traders eye the DoEs released later today.


• Norway Prelim July Production: oil 1.958mln BPD (prev. 1.675mln BPD in June); gas 10.2bcm (prev. 8.8bcm).


• WTI currently resides in a 61.83-62.56/bbl range while


• Elsewhere, Iraq signed an agreement with Chevron (CVX) for a project that consists of four exploration blocks and the development of other oil fields.


• In geopolitics, the Israeli defence minister gave the green light for the IDF to take over Gaza City (northern Gaza), meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky says Russia struck a gas distribution station in Ukraine's Odesa region.


• Brent sits in a USD 65.81-66.57/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold +0.2%, Silver -0.9%, Palladium --0.6%

• Spot gold languishes just above the prior day's trough as participants await Fed policy clues from the incoming FOMC Minutes and Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole.


• FOMC MINUTES (19:00BST/14:00EDT): The Fed held rates steady at 4.25-4.50% as expected, with Governors Waller and Bowman both voting for a 25bps rate cut, in line with their comments ahead of the blackout period. Fed's Kugler did not vote. Given the market’s dovish shift in implied pricing of Fed rate cuts ahead following the soft July jobs report (traders now fully discount two 25bps reductions in 2025, with some probability of a third), traders will be particularly attentive to any arguments for rate reductions; additionally, while US CPI was in line with expectations in the month, PPI surged, leaning back against dovish calls. (Full primer available on Newsquawk).


• Price action this morning sees the precious metals complex eking mild gains, with spot gold still trading under its 50 DMA (~3,348/oz) in a USD 3,311.56-3,327.61/oz range.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.1%

• Flat/mixed trade across base metals amid quiet newsflow and ahead of FOMC minutes.


• Copper futures lacked demand following the recent selling pressure and amid the mixed overnight risk appetite.


• US President Trump said it is 'so sad' that opponents are trying to delay the Resolution copper project in Arizona, while he added 'our country needs copper, and now', and an appeal of the Arizona copper mine ruling will take place.


• 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,684.75-9,729.00/t range.

20 Aug 2025 - 09:55- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk