EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude subdued pre-OPEC, gold on standby as NFP looms

Crude Oil: WTI Oct -0.5% Brent Nov -0.5%

• Crude futures remain subdued after recent declines and reports that OPEC-8 are mulling another production hike at the meeting on Sunday, while demand was also not helped by the surprise build in the weekly EIA headline crude stockpiles.


• OPEC-8 will meet on Sunday, 7th September to possibly discuss starting the unwind of the 1.65mln BPD tranche of cuts, marking a shift from plans to keep these specific curbs until end-2026. Sources on September 3rd suggested that OPEC+ is reportedly mulling another oil production hike at Sunday's meeting. This is in contrast to initial expectations that the group will maintain production policy. That said, Russian Deputy PM Novak clarified that OPEC-8 are not discussing production increase presently, and no agenda has been set for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting yet. Novak added current market conditions and forecasts are to be considered. According to delegates cited by Bloomberg, the group will consider all options on output.


• Overnight, Russian Deputy PM Novak added that OPEC-8 are not discussing production increase now and no agenda has been set for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting yet, while he added that current market conditions and forecasts are to be considered. Novak also said the OPEC+ deal shows its effectiveness and the level of implementation of OPEC+ deal is 102% in January-August.


• Meanwhile in geopolitics, Russian President Putin said "we have open dialogue with US President Trump"; have not yet spoken to Trump. He added that Russia assumes military contingents in Ukraine will be legal targets for strikes and sees no sense in their deployment if there is a peace deal, while Russia will abide by the agreements on Ukraine.


• Elsewhere, sticking with Russia, EU Energy Commissioner said even if there is a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, "we should still not return to Russian energy", adding this is not a temporary sanction; US supports that EU stops Russian energy imports.


• WTI currently resides in a 63.04-63.42/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.59-66.97/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold +0.1%, Silver +0.3%, Palladium -0.2%

• Spot gold is kept afloat in rangebound trade after yesterday's sideways price action and with the NFP report on the horizon.


• The US jobs report will influence Fed rate cut expectations through year-end, with September largely priced in after the weak July jobs report and Powell’s Jackson Hole comments. Fed Governor Waller has recently reiterated his dovish stance, noting data will guide the pace of cuts. Powell highlighted the unemployment rate as key amid declining labour supply and demand, suggesting downside risk. Some Fed officials see the breakeven payroll rate between 30-80k.


• Spot gold resides in a USD 3,540.01-3,561.28/oz range at the time of writing, yesterday's range between USD 3,511.75-3,564.15/oz, and with the all-time-high set on Wednesday at USD 3,578.66/oz.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper +0.6%

• Copper futures steadily gain alongside the mostly positive risk appetite in the Asia-Pac region and then Europe.


• 3M LME copper remains under USD 10k after recently topping the level. The contract currently trades in a USD 9,895.30-9,991.45/t range awaiting the US jobs report.

05 Sep 2025 - 09:50- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk