EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude subdued, gold kept afloat, and base metals flat; focus on Trump/Putin on Friday

Crude Oil: WTI Sep -0.5%, Brent Oct -0.5%

• Softer trade across the crude complex after declining yesterday as participants await the upcoming Trump/Putin meeting in Alaska on Friday. At the same time, demand is not helped by bearish private sector crude inventory data, and it was also reported that the first vessel to load crude bound for the US after the new license had docked at Venezuela's José port.


• In terms of today's trade, some weakness was seen as the IEA OMR trimmed its 2025 oil demand growth forecast to 680k BPD (prev. 700k BPD) whilst it trimmed its 2026 forecast to 700k BPD (prev. 720k BPD. IEA said the oil market will face a record supply glut next year, whilst "the latest data show lacklustre demand across the major economies and, with consumer confidence still depressed, a sharp rebound appears remote."


• This comes after yesterday, the EIA STEO increased world oil demand forecast for 2025 to 103.7mln BPD (prev. 103.5mln BPD) and 2026 world oil demand at 104.9mln BPD (prev. 104.6mln BPD), whilst the OPEC MOMR maintained its 2025 global oil demand forecasts, and 2026 forecast revised up by 0.1mln BPD.


• Ahead, traders are gearing up for the Trump-Putin summit on Friday. Markets will likely focus on several factors: 1) the prospect of looser US sanctions on Russia, 2) how far Russia is willing to go on concessions, 3) any tangible progress towards a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire (full Newsquawk preview available on the headline feed).


• Ukrainian President Zelensky and European allies plan to hold a pre‑summit video call with Trump on Wednesday, 13th August 2025 (15:00 CT/14:00 BST/09:00 EDT) to set red lines before the Alaska talk.


• WTI currently resides in a 62.77-63.3.4/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 65.80-66.32/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold +1.4%, Silver +0.3%, Palladium U/C

• Mostly firmer trade across precious metals as the Dollar eases further following yesterday's US CPI and Trump's threat to sue Fed Chair Powell.


• Aside from that, there has been little macro newsflow as traders gear up for the Trump/Putin summit on Friday (full Newsquawk preview available on the headline feed).


• The data slate today is thin but on the speakers' slate, Treasury Secretary Bessent will give an interview on Bloomberg today, he said that Fed Board Nominee Stephen Miran’s Senate confirmation was expected by September, and also suggested that the Fed should consider a 50bps rate cut at that September meeting, citing revised data showing weaker job growth in May and June as well as favourable inflation dynamics as a key factor for a potentially larger 50bps cut. Elsewhere, further remarks are due today from Fed's Barkin (2027), Fed's Goolsbee (2025 voter), and Fed's Bostic (2027).


• Spot gold resides in a USD 3,342.63-3,360.98/oz range, compared to yesterday's USD 3,331.17-3,359.34/oz parameter, with the 50 DMA at USD 3,349.02/oz.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper +0.1%

• Flat/mixed trade across base metals despite the softer Dollar and rise in equity markets, with little in terms of fresh fundamentals to spur price action.


• Iron ore futures also closed little changed overnight, although analysts suggest demand is high despite the steel output curbs in northern China.


• Copper prices rose yesterday amid the softer Dollar spurred by US CPI and the Trump lawsuit on the Fed Chair.


• 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,822.25-9,867.35/t range.

13 Aug 2025 - 09:55- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk