EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude subdued and metals mixed ahead of US jobs

Crude Oil: WTI Jul -0.4%, Brent Aug -0.5%

• Subdued trade amid a firmer Dollar and overall cautious risk tone heading into the US jobs report before the weekend.
• Contracts saw a leg lower likely on technicals as WTI dipped under USD 63.00/bbl at the same time as Brent fell under USD 65.00/bbl, although prices thereafter stabilised.
• News flow has been light for the complex, with nothing major to report in geopolitics either.

Precious Metals: Gold +0.2%, Silver U/C, Palladium +1.3%

• Spot gold and silver are largely treading water amid a lack of catalysts during the European morning in the run-up to the US jobs report.
• The consensus currently expects 130k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in May (vs 177k in April; the 3-month average currently stands at 155k, 6-month at 193k, and the 12-month at 157k). There will also be some attention on the government payrolls figure (which previously showed gains of +10k); some suggest that the Federal job loss figures may tick up as severance periods end regarding public sector layoffs. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.2% (note: the Fedʼs March projections forecast unemployment would rise to 4.4% this year). Average hourly earnings are expected to rise by +0.3% M/M, picking up in pace from the +0.2% M/M reported in April. The annual rate is expected to ease to 3.7% Y/Y (from 3.8%). NOTE: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will correct minor errors in April 2025 jobs data on June 6th, related to weights from a redesigned Current Population Survey sample; the corrections will not impact key metrics such as the unemployment rate.
• Spot gold currently resides in a current USD 3,351.49-3,375.29/oz range, well within yesterday's USD 3,338.29-3,403.15/oz parameter.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.6%

• Mixed trade across base metals, in fitting with the cautious risk tone ahead of the US jobs report, with the Trump-Xi phone call doing little to keep broader prices underpinned during this session.
• 3M LME copper dipped back under USD 9,700/t to trade in a USD 9,659.00-9,768.00/t range at the time of writing.
• Dalian iron ore futures rose to a one-week peak overnight with traders citing strong Chinese demand coupled with some optimism following the Trump-Xi call, with the front-month contract ending daytime trade +0.9%.