EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude steadies following Wednesday’s selloff, XAU bid as the government reopens

Crude Oil: WTI/ Brent -0.3%

• Crude benchmarks have steadied following Wednesday's c. USD 2.60/bbl selloff as OPEC revised its 2025 supply forecast incrementally higher, weighing on the current sentiment that the oil market is oversupplied. WTI and Brent remain in a USD 58.12-58.56/bbl and USD 62.34-62.81/bbl band respectively as the European trade continues.
• Earlier in the session, the IEA released its monthly oil report, in which it raised both its demand and supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026. This comes mostly in line with what the EIA and OPEC forecasted in Wednesday’s session, although OPEC did maintain its demand growth forecasts. Crude benchmarks didn’t react following the report.
• In other news, Reuters reported that Russia’s Orsk refinery is to stay offline until Sunday following the drone attack by Ukraine on Tuesday.
• Crude stocks are expected to see a slight build of 1.96ml, a weaker build of 5.202mln the prior week.

Precious Metals: XAU +0.8%, XAG +1.6%

• Spot XAU oscillated in a USD 4180-4219/oz band throughout the APAC session as the market consolidated following the sharp move higher during Wednesday's US session. As the European session got underway, XAU has continued higher and is currently trading near session highs at USD 4235/oz as the weaker dollar helps support the yellow metal.
• As the US government reopens, the markets will be waiting for the delayed data to be released. The White House has announced that the September BLS report will be released but stated that there is a likelihood that the October CPI and jobs data will never be released. Amid a lack of catalysts, this news could be a reason for the weaker dollar.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper +0.4%

• Base metals have followed on from Wednesday’s gains as US President Trump announced the end of the government shutdown. 3M LME Copper initially dipped to a trough of USD 10.87k/t as the APAC session got underway but reversed higher as the US House passed the bill to reopen the government. The red metal peaked at USD 10.98k/t before pulling back from best levels, currently trading at USD 10.95k/t as the European session continues.
• In Zimbabwe, lithium miners have asked the government to hold on the implementation of a tax on concentrates until the end of 2026 so they can raise capital to build processing plants.