EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude slips on OPEC+; precious and base metals catch and hold a bid

Crude Oil: WTI Jun -2.2%, Brent Jul -2.1%

• Hefty losses across the crude complex following this weekend's OPEC+ confab, which saw an acceleration of production increases.


• To recap, OPEC+ countries with voluntary cuts agreed to raise oil output by 411k bpd in June in a virtual meeting held on Saturday. It was also reported that OPEC+ would likely approve in June another accelerated oil production hike of 411k bpd for July and could unwind voluntary cuts of 2.2mln bpd through October 2025 if compliance with quotas doesn’t improve as Saudi Arabia looks to punish some members for exceeding quotas, according to sources cited by Reuters. Furthermore, it was also reported that eight OPEC+ countries are to meet next on June 1st.


• That being said, Kpler's Amena Bakr suggested "On the reports claiming a further acceleration of the voluntary cuts. I spoke to more than 5 delegates and ALL said that this “plan” is fiction. All depends on market conditions and nothing was discussed beyond June."


• Elsewhere, in geopolitics, Israeli PM Netanyahu "made it clear that the [new] plan differs from its predecessors in that [Israel is] moving from the method of raids to occupying the territories and remaining in them," according to a statement by the PM office.


• UBS expects further seasonal increases in global oil demand in the next few months, given the US driving season and increasing Middle-East temperatures. Sees Brent at USD 68/bbl in the coming months.


• Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecast to reflect an upward revision to expected OPEC+ supply beginning in July; GS now sees 2025 Brent averaging USD 60/bbl (prev. USD 56/bbl), and WTI USD 56/bbl (prev. 59/bbl).


• Analysts at ING have also updated their forecasts, in which they now see Brent averaging USD 65/bbl in 2025 (prev. USD 70/bbl)


• WTI currently resides in a USD 55.30-57.10/bbl range while its Brent counterpart sits in a USD 58.50-60.24/bbl parameter.


• Dutch TTF prices are contained intraday on either side of EUR 33/MWh - EU plans to propose banning Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, according to Bloomberg.

Precious Metals: Gold +1.0%, Silver +1.1%, Palladium +0.6%

• Precious metals trade in the green at the time of writing despite a relatively stable dollar, but amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and geopolitics, coupled with recent losses in the complex as spot gold pulled back from record highs set on 22nd April.


• Spot gold resides in a current USD 3,237.79-2,374.71/oz range - still within Thursday's USD 3,201.95-3,288.16/oz parameter.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.4%

• Copper futures edge higher with the upside capped amid the holiday closures including its largest buyer, China.


• Sentiment this morning is mixed across the regions as participants await further macro newsflow.


• 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,241.95-9,460.65/t range at the time of writing.

05 May 2025 - 09:50- MetalsEU Research- Source: Newsquawk