EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude reverses earlier gains despite Q1 2026 oil hike pause

Crude Oil: WTI/ Brent -0.2%

• 
  Crude benchmarks initially gapped higher following the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, but have failed to hold onto gains, reversing back to the closing price of Friday’s session. WTI and Brent gapped and extended to a peak of USD 61.50/bbl and USD 65.32/bbl respectively before falling c. USD 0.80/bbl to a trough of USD 60.70/bbl and USD 64.53/bbl.


• OPEC+ agreed to an oil production hike of 137k BPD for December, but then agreed to hold off on oil hikes for the following three months. The three-month hold has been described by analysts as an acknowledgement by the group that the oil market is facing a sizable surplus. However, comments by the UAE echoed other oil producers, stating that there are no oil oversupply concerns. Following the meeting, analysts have raised their near-term forecast for Brent prices into the USD 60-65/bbl range, with the latest being Morgan Stanley lifting its H1 2026 Brent forecast to USD 60/bbl from USD 57.50/bbl.


• On the Russian sanction front, it has been reported that Chinese and Turkish oil refiners have cut Russian crude imports amid pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine from the US and its allies.


• Over the weekend, a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea has hit a Russian oil tanker and damaged oil-loading facilities at the Tuapse port, which houses a key Rosneft refinery.

Precious Metals: XAU/ XAG +0.1%

• 
  Spot XAU fell straight on the open of the APAC session to a trough of USD 3962/oz before gradually reversing to a peak of USD 4028/oz just as the European session got underway. Currently, XAU is trading shy of best levels at USD 4006/oz as the global equity bid weighs on the yellow metal.


• Earlier pressure seen in XAU comes as China has ended its gold tax incentive, which no longer allows retailers to offset VAT when selling the yellow metal they bought from the Shanghai Gold Exchange, in turn impacting demand.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper U/C

• 
  Base metals initially dropped as the APAC session got underway, as participants also digested disappointing Chinese RatingDog Manufacturing PMI data, but then tilted higher, with 3M LME Aluminium reaching near its highest prices since May 2022, as the market follows the wider positive sentiment in global equities.


• 
  3M LME Copper dipped to a trough of USD 10.84k/t early in the trading day before reversing to a peak of USD 10.93k/t and currently oscillating within this tight c. USD 100/t band.

03 Nov 2025 - 10:00- MetalsGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk