EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude resumes upside while metals are hampered by the Dollar

Crude Oil: WTI Sep +0.5%, Brent Oct +0.5%

• Firmer following a period of calm in APAC and early-European trade, with the complex thereafter resuming yesterday's rally, spurred mostly on Monday by US President Trump who suggested he was disappointed with Russian President Putin, and that he would shorten the deadline for Russia to come to a deal to end the war with Ukraine from 50 days to 10-12 days, with tougher sanctions seen in the event of no deal with Russia, alongside a 100% secondary tariff on countries importing Russian oil.


• "If imposed and enforced strictly, it would cause a significant shift in the oil outlook. India, China and Turkey have increased purchases of Russian crude since the Russia-Ukraine war, taking advantage of the discounts for the oil.", say analysts at ING, who caveat, suggesting "Another key question is whether Trump would go ahead with these sanctions and secondary tariffs. It’s no secret that Trump is keen to see lower oil prices."


• Aside from that, some of the earlier gains in the crude complex yesterday were likely a function of the EU-US trade deal, which, although rattling some EU members, diverts an escalatory path between the nations.


• WTI resides in a USD 66.53-67.09/bbl range with its Brent counterpart in a USD 68.86-70.28/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold +0.4%, Silver Y/C, Palladium -0.4%

• Mixed/flat trade across precious metals, taking a breather from yesterday's price action in the absence of macro updates and in the run up to tomorrow's FOMC.


• The FOMC is widely expected to leave rates on hold, but there may be some dissent from either Governor Waller or Governor Bowman, or both, given their recent commentary; other Fed policymakers have largely taken a patient, wait-and-see approach due to the uncertainties of the tariff impact and delayed imposition of tariffs, with new tariff rates not set to come into force until August 1st.


• Palladium narrowly lags after outperforming yesterday, while spot gold holds mild gains after yesterday's slide.


• Spot gold resides in a USD 3,308.16-3,330.10/oz range, and within Monday's USD 3,301.76-3,345.52/oz parameter.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.1%

• Mostly lower trade across base metals as upside is seemingly hampered by the stronger dollar.


• Newsflow for base metals has been quiet with traders eyeing any further trade developments, whilst the US and China are yet to officially extend their 90-day trade truce.


• Iron ore prices climbed overnight with traders citing the anticipated extension of the US-China trade truce, with ongoing demand support also seen from China's dam project.


• 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,759.90-9,796.85/t range at the time of writing.

29 Jul 2025 - 10:15- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk