EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude remains subdued while base metals surge and gold holds onto gains

Crude Oil: WTI May -2.6%, Brent Jun -2.5%

• Crude complex trades lower across the board as the optimism from Trump's tariff revision abates, with the 90-day "pause" more so a 90-day tariff reduction for the worst offenders, whilst China saw a total tariff hike to 125% and Canada and Mexico had their respective tariff policies maintained.


• The upped tariff on China does not bode well for the demand side of the equation, with tit-for-tat measures likely from the world's two largest nations, in turn impeding global growth.


• Analysts at ING posit "While the pause offers some relief to markets, there’s still plenty of uncertainty on the trade front. This uncertainty is still likely to drag on global growth, which is clearly a concern for oil demand. Still, conditions are not looking as bad as they were just a few days ago."


• Aside from that, crude-specific newsflow has been light as traders await global responses to the US tariff policy revision.


• WTI May resides in a USD 60.64-63.34/bbl range while its Brent June counterpart trades in a USD 63.64-66.08/bbl parameter.

Precious Metals: Gold +0.9%, Silver -0.7%, Palladium -1.4%

• Mixed trade in the precious metals space as traders book profits from silver and palladium, whilst spot gold remains firm amid continued haven flows in times of uncertainty.


• Uncertainty remains from Trump's tariff revision, with the 90-day "pause" more so a 90-day tariff reduction for the worst offenders, whilst China saw a total tariff hike to 125% and Canada and Mexico had their respective tariff policies maintained.


• The yellow metal topped yesterday's peak (3,099.77/oz) to trade in a current USD 3,071.50-3,132.63/oz range. The next level to the upside is marked by the 4th April high at USD 3,136.77/oz.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper +3.5%

• Firmer across the board from a demand boost as the US trimmed tariffs for the "worst offending" countries, albeit upped its China tariffs and maintained Mexico and Canada's levies.


• Further, Chinese leaders are to meet on stimulus following President Trump's tariff shock, according to Bloomberg.


• "A prolonged trade war would drag on consumer confidence, weaken appetite for risk and weigh on demand for raw materials. However, the prospect of a prolonged trade war has also raised expectations for Beijing to unveil more aggressive stimulus measures. This could cap the downside to copper and other industrial metals.", says the desk at ING.


• Little impact seen in base metals from sub-forecast Chinese CPI and PPI metrics.


• 3M LME copper trades towards the upper end of a USD 8,842.57-9,061.00/t range, but off best levels.


• Dalian iron ore ended daytime trade +3.1% on the aforementioned optimism sparked by US President Trump.

10 Apr 2025 - 10:10- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk