EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude pulls back after the Putin-Trump call though gas lifts as strikes continue

WTI/Brent: -0.9%

• Crude futures remain under pressure after Tuesday’s constructive geopolitical developments, with both WTI and Brent trading at weekly lows of USD 66.1/bbl and USD 69.9/bbl respectively.


• Trump-Putin talks were described as productive, with the leaders agreeing on a temporary halt to energy infrastructure strikes and immediate talks on a complete ceasefire. However, it does appear that this agreement may have already been breached by Russia, with attacks reported on power supplies in the Dnipropetrovsk region this morning. Most recently, IFX citing Russia’s Defence Ministry reports that Ukraine attacked Russian infrastructure overnight.


• Oil prices are also weighed on by mixed private inventory data, which showed a larger-than-expected build in headline crude stockpiles alongside distillates and gasoline.


• In the Middle East, Houthi Minister Amer said Houthis are now at war with the US, and will retaliate against strikes, adding they will not be "dialling down" Red Sea action in response to US pressure or appeals from allies such as Iran.

Dutch TTF: +3.3%

• TTF is firmer, supported by the lack of a full ceasefire in Ukraine, along with reports of Russian and Ukrainian breaches of this energy agreement, as mentioned in the crude section.


• More on the European storage front, Goldman Sachs wrote that their view on end-Mar25 gas storage levels are simply too low for European inventories to reach 90% full by the end of summer in 2025. They still believe storage can still reach over 80% full, which will likely be enough to go through next winter given the ongoing ramp in global LNG supply, if European prices stay high enough to continue to attract high LNG imports. This means staying at least EUR >40/MWh, though moving higher to EUR 45-50/MWh would increase their conviction on European LNG imports remaining robust.


• Elsewhere, BofA raised its Henry Hub forecast to USD 4.64 and USD 4.50 for 2025 and 2026 respectively.

Gold: -0.1%

• Spot gold has given back some of yesterday’s gains, after reaching fresh ATHs of USD 3045/oz post Trump-Putin call, and ahead of this week's Central Bank meetings. The yellow metal holds towards the lower end of its daily range of USD 3,022.96-3,045.39/oz, trading at USD 3028/oz.

3M LME Copper: +0.3%

• Copper futures are little changed amid the mixed risk sentiment and ahead of key risk events.

19 Mar 2025 - 10:00- EnergyGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk