EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude oil soars and gold edges higher amid OPEC+ and geopolitics

Crude Futures: WTI Jul+3.0%, Brent Aug +3.4%

• Boosted amid an as-expected OPEC+ confab on Saturday but also following a few updates from Iran, in which this weekend's IAEA report was damning towards the nation, whilst Iranian media quoting informed sources suggested the US proposal on the nuclear deal is "imaginary, one-sided and very far from being a fair basis for any possible settlement.


• The IAEA report on Iran released over the weekend expressed "serious concern" over the estimated 409kg of uranium enriched to 60% as of May 17, marking an increase of over 130kg since the prior report in February. IAEA also noted Iran's "lack of cooperation".


• Regarding OPEC+, members that voluntarily restricted output agreed to a 411k BPD oil production increase in July, as expected, which could be paused or reversed subject to market conditions.


• ING suggests "Despite the large increase, oil prices rallied this morning. This could be because there had been suggestions that the group may go for an even larger supply increase", albeit it's working, noting most sources flagged the 411k BPD increase for weeks beforehand.


• In terms of Russia-Ukraine, a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegates in Istanbul is expected to take place at 11:00 BST/06:00 EDT in Ciragan Palace on Monday, according to a Turkish Foreign Ministry source.


• WTI Jul resides in a USD 61.06-62.94/bbl range and Brent Aug in the USD 63.00-64.73/bbl parameter.

Precious Metals: Gold +1.9%, Silver +1.3%, Palladium +0.3%

• Firmer trade across precious metals amid the punchy US-Sino rhetoric and Iran-related headline from the weekend.


• Traders look ahead to the US ISM Manufacturing data at 15:00 BST followed by a speech by Fed Chair Powell at 18:00 BST, whilst risk events towards the end of the week include the US NFP.


• XAU/USD rose from a USD 3,288.75/oz low to a USD 3,358.79/oz intraday peak at the time of writing, with the 23rd May peak seen at USD 3,365.76/oz.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper +0.9%

• Copper futures rallied overnight despite the absence of its largest buyer and the mostly downbeat risk sentiment in the Asia-Pac region, with prices lifted after US President Trump announced late on Friday to double US steel and aluminium prices, with the tailwinds in copper due to potential stockpiling and supply-side concerns.


• Aluminium premiums for US buyers soared by over 50% vs Friday after US President Trump announced late on Friday to double US steel and aluminium prices.

02 Jun 2025 - 10:15- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk