EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude moves higher as Trump tells Iranians to evacuate Tehran while cutting his G7 trip short

WTI/Brent: +1%/+1%

• Crude futures are firmly in the green with Brent higher by USD 0.9/bbl. Strength in benchmarks began at the open, with US President Trump saying "Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!". Shortly after, a further uptick was seen after Iranian media reported several explosions and heavy air defence fire in the capital Tehran, whilst Trump also cut his G7 trip short to attend something “much bigger” than brokering a ceasefire.


• In a recent interview with CBS, President Trump predicted that Israel "would not slow down their barrage on Iran" and stated he was not seeking a ceasefire. He also expressed hope that Iran’s nuclear program would be eliminated before any potential US involvement. For reference, this report lifted Benchmarks off lows, adding USD 1.8/bbl to Brent in an hour.


• From the IEA this morning, its forecasts expect World Oil Supply to rise by 1.8mln bpd in 2025 (prev. forecast rise of 1.6mln bpd); 2025 oil demand growth forecast to 720k bpd (prev. forecast 740k). Alongside this, it noted China demand is to peak earlier than forecasted.


• Overnight, there were reports of ships on fire near the Strait of Hormuz. This morning, these reports were confirmed, and said to be a collision between two ships, rather than overnight speculation of a Houthi attack.


• For Dutch TTF, the EU is expected to propose a plan today to end reliance on Russian gas by the end of 2027. The proposal reportedly includes a gradual ban on Russian imports starting next January and the removal of services for Russian firms at EU LNG terminals.

Gold: U/C

• Spot gold is flat on the day, with Trump’s Tehran warning and the CBS interview failing to boost haven demand, and amid a flat Dollar.


• The yellow metal is now eyeing the USD 3,400/oz handle, a level that saw resistance in early morning trade.


• ETFs added 136k/oz of gold to their holdings on Monday, according to Bloomberg.

3M LME Copper: -0.4%

• Copper trades indecisively amid the broader cautious risk tone following Israel-Iran updates.


• The red metal fell at its open due to China’s subdued mood, though is now attempting a move into the green, with support seen around the European cash open.


• MCU3 trades within a USD 9,658.05-9,729.15/t range.

17 Jun 2025 - 10:20- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk