EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude modestly lower whilst XAU gains a touch awaiting US PPI

WTI/Brent: -0.2%/-0.3%

• WTI and Brent are currently incrementally lower, and have held a negative bias throughout the European morning. Brent Sept’25 has traded in a very tight USD 68.46-69.09/bbl range, and ultimately awaiting fresh catalysts. Do note that the latest Private Inventory data showed a 800k build vs expectations of a slight draw; no reaction on the release. In geopolitics, drone attacks have continued in Iraq’s Kurdistan region; Gulf Keystone Petroleum temporarily shut production at the Shaikan field (capacity approx. 55k BPD) amidst these attacks.


• Overnight, the complex did clamber off worst levels whereby oil prices were pressured in the prior session thanks to the firmer Dollar (post-CPI) and as markets continued to digest the lack of immediate action by US President Trump on Russia.


• In a recent GS note, analysts at the bank upped its Brent H2’25 forecast to USD 66/bbl (prev. USD 61/bbl), highlighting that global supplies remain lower than expected; the firm did maintain its 2026 view of Brent reaching USD 56/bbl citing an unwind of OPEC8+ production cuts.

Precious Metals: XAU +0.4%

• Precious metals are mixed with Palladium a little lower whilst spot Gold and Silver post modest gains. Newsflow has been relatively light today and Dollar price-action has been muted. The yellow-metal is seemingly attempting to pare back losses seen in the prior session.


• XAU/USD currently trades in a USD 3,325.21-3,342.49/oz range, with the low for today incrementally above its 50 DMA (3,323.42); the yellow-metal currently above its 21 DMA (3,323.42) but did dip below this level earlier in the morning. Now awaiting US PPI and a slew of Fed speakers.

Base Metals: -0.4%

• Base metals are broadly lower continuing the downbeat mood seen overnight, in-fitting with the downbeat risk tone across Asian equities. 3M LME Copper currently trades towards the lower end of a USD 9,613.1-9,663/t range.


• Today markets were met with production updates from both Rio Tinto and Antofagasta; the former suggested that copper prices rebounded in Q2 amid easing trade tensions but did highlight that market tightness deepened as Chinese smelters increased output. As for Antofagasta, it suggested its outlook for copper is positive over the medium-term, seeing continued demand, adding that supply side is becoming “increasingly constrained”.

16 Jul 2025 - 10:00- MetalsEU Research- Source: Newsquawk