EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude modestly boosted by Iran comments, XAU helped by tariff updates

WTI/Brent: +0.9%/+0.8%

• WTI and Brent and currently trading higher by around USD 0.70/bbl and are just off session highs. Overnight, the complex traded with little direction given the lack of energy-specific newsflow and as geopolitical updates remained light. Brent Sept’25 currently trades towards the upper end of a USD 70.35-71.29/bbl range.


• The pick-up in the complex today stemmed from commentary via an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson who highlighted that Tehran will respond to the return of UN sanctions after the snapback mechanism. These comments sparked some modest upside in the complex taking Brent Sept’25 from USD 70.21/bbl to a fresh session high of USD 70.54/bbl, but this upside has since pared a touch. The spokesperson also added that no date or location has been agreed for US/Iran nuclear talks, highlighting that discussions will not restart unless the Iranian side is certain they will work.


• On the trade front, US President Trump sent letters to the EU and Mexico announcing 30% tariffs from August 1st which would be separate from sectoral tariffs. This has sparked some risk-off sentiment across European equities, but little follow-through into the crude complex. Earlier in the morning, the EU's Trade Commissioner said he will speak with US counterparts later today – so traders will keep a keen eye out for any read-out from that meeting.


• Today’s docket is fairly quiet from a data perspective, but traders will keenly await a “major statement” on Russia from US President Trump. The President has seemingly grown frustrated with the lack of progress between Russia-Ukraine, and vowed to send “sophisticated” equipment to Ukraine including Patriot missiles. Details on the “major statement” are light at this stage, ING believes it could include fresh sanctions on Russia, which may potentially target the country’s oil and gas supplies.

Gold: +0.4%

• Precious metals are firmer with some outperformance in spot silver, which continues to build on recent upside; XAG currently trading around USD 38.96/oz, off best after briefly topping a 14-year high at USD 39/oz.


• Spot gold is a little firmer today, initially gapping higher at the open amid the risk deterioration sparked by the US letters to the EU. Though the gap higher was short lived, with the benchmark cooling a touch off best levels into European hours, which then saw the yellow-metal pick-up once again to test those earlier highs. XAU currently trades in a USD 3,354.11-3,374.65/oz range.


• From a technical perspective, downside levels include its 21 DMA (3,340.81) and then its 50 DMA (3,325.86). Upside may see a potential retest of a high from June 23rd (3,396.40).


• UBS writes in their weekly note that dips in gold prices continue to be bought, amid renewed “tariff twists”. The bank suggests gold remains attractive in their global portfolio and prefers longs at and below the USD 3.3k mark.

3M LME Copper: -0.4%

• Base metals hold a negative bias, as traders digest the latest Chinese trade data which were mixed; exports beat expectations whilst imports continue to be dragged down by weaker commodities demand.


• China’s exports rose 5.8% Y/Y in June (exp. 5.0%, prev. 4.8%), driven by strong shipments to non-US markets, while imports grew 1.1% Y/Y (exp. 1.3%, prev. -3.4%), the first increase this year. Exports to the US fell 16.1% for the third month, but the decline eased due to a tariff truce. Shipments to Southeast Asia and the EU surged 16.8% and 7.6%, respectively. China’s steel exports hit a record 30.7mln tons in Q2 (+11% Y/Y), defying trade barriers across Asia and Europe; it surpasses the previous peak from a decade ago, with H1 volumes rising 9%, reflecting resilience from the world’s largest steel producer despite protectionist measures, Bloomberg said.


• UBS suggests that the latest decision to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports has made US copper prices unattractive to import from the likes of Chile, DRC and Peru. Analysts suggest that copper will therefore be redirected elsewhere, and believe it will replenish LME inventories (as such soften LME prices).


• 3M LME Copper is modestly lower and trades towards the lower end of a USD 9,623.8-9,703.6/t range.

14 Jul 2025 - 10:00- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk