EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude looks to updates from Hamas/Trump, XAU holds steady ahead of data

WTI/Brent: +1.1%/+1.1%

• Crude benchmarks rebound after WTI and Brent extended below key levels of USD 61/bbl and USD 64.20/bbl respectively in yesterday’s session. Initially, oscillating between USD 60.90-61.27/bbl and USD 64.50-64.85/bbl after picking up modestly during the APAC session.


• Benchmarks are on track for the biggest weekly decline since June, as we look to the weekend’s OPEC+ meeting on November’s quotas.


• OPEC+ are expected to further increase oil production, but by how much is unknown. Reports estimate a range of 137k to 500k bpd a month over three months, but the upper figure was firmly rejected by the OPEC Secretariat.


• Most recently, a senior Hamas official said that they will need more time and are demanding substantial changes to the Trump plan. Crude benchmarks extended modestly on this to session highs of USD 61.38/bbl and USD 65.02/bbl respectively. As a reminder, Trump gave Hamas just three days to consider and accept the US-backed plan for Gaza.


• Elsewhere, the US administration is pushing to ensure Kurdish oil exports continue to flow in the long term to bolster the economy and counter Iran’s influence in the region.

Gold: +0.1%

• Spot gold has thus far been relatively muted, after selling off from a strengthening dollar yesterday. XAU is currently oscillating within a c. USD 30/oz bound as economic newsflow remains light due to the US government shutdown.


• Eyes will be on S&P and ISM PMIs as an indicator on how the economy is performing. With particular attention on any insights into the labour market, as we will not be getting the BLS NFP release today due to the shutdown.

Copper: +1.0%

• Base metals continue to extend on gains and are on track for the biggest weekly gain since April as supply disruptions, a weaker dollar, and optimism about demand support gains. 3M LME Copper oscillated around USD 10.5k/t before extending to a high of USD 10.85k/t.

03 Oct 2025 - 10:25- ForexEU Research- Source: Newsquawk