EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude lacklustre despite US-Iran talks, Gold continues pullback

WTI/Brent: U/C

• Crude futures are unchanged as attention turns to US-Iran talks and Ukraine peace talks.
• Benchmarks began the week modestly firmer, continuing a three-day winning streak, though gains have pared since the European cash open, bringing them to the unchanged mark.
• WTI and Brent trade at USD 63.50 and 65.70/bbl respectively.
• On US-Iran talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said both sides are showing “seriousness and determination”, while a Senior US official said progress was made, noting there is still much to do.
• Elsewhere in Iran, an explosion at an Iranian port located on the Strait of Hormuz injured 800, though local media reported that the explosion had “no connection” to the country's oil refineries, fuel tanks and pipelines, not impacting military material.
• China is reportedly stockpiling oil amid Trump tariff shocks impacting crude prices as imports of crude to China surged in March and continued to accelerate in April with imports at nearly 11mln BPD vs 8.9mln BPD in January, according to FT citing Kpler data.
• Meanwhile, to add to the risk, the OPEC+ alliance is set to speak next week, to discuss supply quotas for June.
• The latest positioning data shows that speculators increased their net longs in ICE Brent by 29,432 lots (after reporting declines for two straight weeks) to 128,383 lots as of last Tuesday. This was driven predominantly by the liquidation of short positions, according to ING

Dutch TTF: -0.1%

• TTF has begun the week modestly lower, and lacks conviction in the absence of a concrete fallout from the meeting between the US and Ukrainian leaders in the Vatican.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky called the meeting symbolic, noting it had the potential to become historic, some sources noting the conversation began with Trump expressing his disgust to Russian attacks on civilians.
• Some desks note that shipments of LNG have been arriving at higher levels than usual for the time of year in weaker Asia consumption

Gold: -1.0%

• Gold is softer, and underperforms within the metals space in a continuation of the sell-off from record highs, printed Tuesday at USD 3500/oz, currently, the yellow metal is trading either side of the 3280 mark, with eyes on the USD 3300/oz mark, a level which it retreated from overnight.
• The rest of the week holds a number of risk events including US NFP, BoJ, Mag7 earnings and almost certainly trade & geopolitical updates.
• Gold consumption in China fell almost 6% Y/Y in Q1 2025, China's Gold Association said the decline was led by jewellery demand falling 27% Y/Y amid higher domestic prices dampening demand. On the supply side, China produced 1.5% more gold Y/Y.

Base metals: 3M LME Copper -0.5%

• Base metals are mixed, given the flimsy risk tone and after China's press briefing on policy underwhelmed.
• 3M LME Copper sits in a busy USD 9,316.15-9,402.85/t range.