EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude gains post OPEC and amid geopolitics; Gold soars to another ATH

Crude Oil: WTI Oct +1.5% Brent Nov +1.5%

• Gained following the decision by OPEC+ members to continue hiking production for October, albeit at a slower pace of increase of 137k bpd (as touted), while Goldman Sachs kept its Brent/WTI price forecast unchanged for 2025 and noted that the decision to start gradually unwinding the 1.65mln bpd of cuts likely reflects that OECD commercial stocks remain low.


• Desks highlight that the slower pace of OPEC+ supply increases should help trim the expected surplus, with additional support from stronger Chinese imports of crude oil as refiners return from maintenance.


• In geopolitics, the EU reportedly weighs new sanctions on Russia to hit banks and oil trade, according to Bloomberg.


• WTI currently resides in a USD 61.85-63.08/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 65.51-66.78/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold +0.8%, Silver +0.2%, Palladium +1.3%

• Climbed in the European morning after trading rangebound overnight as traders took a brief breather from the aftermath of last Friday's jobs data, owing to a weaker dollar and Fed rate cut bets.


• Drivers remain a mix of: 1) overhang from Friday’s data, 2) geopolitics (Trump-Russia tensions + more EU sanctions), 3) sustained central bank demand (PBoC), and 4) technical momentum after topping USD 3,600/oz.


• The PBoC purchased gold in August for the 10th month in a row, according to data cited by Reuters. Global central bank buying has slowed as prices hit record highs, but ongoing geopolitical tensions and Fed uncertainty are expected to sustain demand, according to the World Gold Council.


• US President Trump issued an executive order on Friday exempting graphite, tungsten, uranium, gold bullion and other metals from tariffs, while silicone and certain pharmaceuticals/chemicals were included in the tariff list.


• Positioning also supportive: CFTC data shows managed money net longs in COMEX gold rose by 20,740 lots (second week higher), while silver longs increased for a third straight week.


• Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,579.72-3,617.29/oz range after topping the psychological USD 3,600/oz for the first time.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper +0.2%

• Losses from last Friday were met with a limited APAC recovery as participants digested disappointing Chinese trade data.


• Prices then tilted firmer during the European morning amid the softer dollar and broader risk appetite.


• 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,888.10-9,934.00/t range, at the time of writing.


• Dalian iron ore rose for a fifth consecutive session amid a sharp fall in shipments alongside resilient steel exports from China, with the front-month contract ending daytime trade +0.6%.

08 Sep 2025 - 09:55- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk