EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude firmer & XAU slips given the risk tone but base metals fail to benefit

WTI/Brent: +0.5%/+0.4%

• A firmer start to the session. Crude benchmarks tracking the broader risk tone, which continues to climb despite a brief knock on hawkish EZ inflation data (see Fixed/FX).


• Overall, the main macro driver has been updates to the US-China trade front. While the signing outlined by President Trump proved to just be firming up some existing details, a view corroborated by China, China’s MOFCOM has since confirmed they will be approving export applications for controlled items, i.e. rare earths.


• While bid, the action thus far sees WTI shy of USD 66.00/bbl and Brent only just past USD 67.00/bbl at best; shy of USD 66.42/bbl and USD 67.77/bbl peaks from Thursday and of course markedly below the peaks printed during the height of the recent “12 day war”.


• Ahead, the complex generally will likely take impetus from events stateside and particularly the macro reaction to PCE and/or anything pertinent on the trade front between China and the US.

Gold: -1.1%

• Tarnished and below USD 3300/oz. Pressure arises as the risk tone continues to firm, fixed income moves a touch lower (yields higher) and as the yellow metal resumes the gentle downward trajectory that has been intact almost unbroken for around 10 sessions.


• While pressured, XAU is yet to move substantially below the USD 3.3k/oz mark, only around USD 20/oz below at worst thus far; cushioned to a degree by an easing in the USD and as markets await upcoming US risk events and particularly PCE for impetus.


• Losses are slightly more pronounced in XAG, which is probing the USD 36/oz mark to the downside vs a USD 36.72/oz peak and continuing to retreat from the USD 36.82/oz WTD high that printed on Thursday.

Copper: -0.3%

• Unable to benefit from the risk tone. However, while softer, 3M LME Copper is holding onto essentially all of the upside it derived on Monday when it rose by near USD 200 to a USD 9.91k peak.


• As it stands, the base metals has slipped just below the USD 9.9k mark, but remains on track to close out the week with strong gains after opening it at USD 9.65k. Aside from the discussed US-China trade updates and agreements on the export of controlled items, newsflow for the space has been a little light; counting down to PCE and other broader macro drivers.

27 Jun 2025 - 10:00- ForexEU Research- Source: Newsquawk