EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude firmer while gold printed a fresh record high; base metals subdued

Crude Oil: WTI Dec +0.6%, Brent Jan +0.6%

• A positive European session for the crude complex thus far despite the broader risk aversion elsewhere (on tariff woes), but amidst fears of escalating geopolitics.


• Recent reports that US President Trump threatened to bomb Iran if a nuclear deal can't be reached, while he also warned of secondary tariffs on Russian oil but later stated that he is not putting on oil sanctions right now.


• The risk aversion kept crude prices subdued in the APAC, although momentum picked up to the upside as European traders entered the fray and reacted to the aforementioned geopolitics.


• WTI May currently trades in a USD 68.81-70.10/bbl while its Brent counterpart resides in a USD 72.28-73.51/bbl parameter at the time of writing.

Nat Gas: Dutch TTF +1.3%, US Nat Gas +3.0%

• On a firmer footing following APAC weakness, whilst the end of the heating season has reduced demand, shifting market focus to inventory refilling for next winter.


• Warmer weather forecasts and strong LNG flows are also contributing to recent downward pressure on prices, according to desks.


• The new storage season begins on 1st April, but there are concerns about the pace of storage injections. Bloomberg reported that the European gas sector is entering a critical period, with storage facilities emerging from winter two-thirds empty. Traders typically help refill inventories in the summer when prices are lower, preparing for the next heating season's demand. The period is key for ensuring sufficient gas supplies.


• ING suggests (citing GIE data) that as of 29 March, gas storage is at 33.7% capacity, below the five-year average of 45% and well below 58.7% at the same time last year.

Precious Metals: Gold +1.2%, Silver +0.6%, Palladium +0.8%

• Spot gold printed a fresh record high at the open and extended on gains to top USD 3,100/oz amid haven demand, and is one of the best-performing major commodities in 2025, up some 19% YTD.


• The yellow metal sees several drivers including trade and geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty from these events, central bank purchases and increased ETF inflows.


• Analysts at ING "see uncertainty over trade and tariffs continuing to buoy gold prices."


• Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,076-3,128/oz range after printing fresh all-time highs.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.4%

• Base metals trade mostly lower trade across base metals amid the tariff-related risk aversion as US "Liberation Day" approaches.


• Copper futures were subdued amid the risk-off tone for Asia but with the losses stemmed amid initial resilience in the red metal's largest purchaser after encouraging official Chinese PMI data.


• Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 50.5 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.2); Non-Mfg PMI (Mar) 50.8 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.4); Composite PMI (Mar) 51.4 (Prev. 51.1).

31 Mar 2025 - 10:00- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk