EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude finds some slight respite from Monday's pressure, Lebanon ceasefire meeting expected at 15:30GMT

WTI/Brent: +0.8%/+0.8%

• Firmer, but only modestly so. Action which comes as benchmarks attempt to claw back some of the pronounced downside seen on Monday as reporting around a potential Lebanon ceasefire intensified.


• As it stands, it appears a ceasefire will be agreed today with Israel's Cabinet set to meet at 15:30GMT to discuss this. Note, officials overnight indicated that there were still some reservations on the agreement within Israel, but that the Cabinet was likely to approve it.


• Into this meeting, WTI and Brent are firmer by around USD 0.50/bbl having lifted from USD 68.57/bbl and USD 72.70/bbl respective lows. Action which leaves them markedly shy of Monday’s USD 71.48/bbl and USD 75.38/bbl respective peaks.


• Elsewhere, Exxon’s (XOM) Head of Upstream says it is "unlikely" there will be a radical change in US oil production and not going to see anyone in "drill baby drill" mode; US companies will maintain capital discipline

Gold: +0.1%

• Essentially flat. Saw some modest two-way action overnight as markets generally but particularly the USD reacted to Trump’s tariff announcements.


• As it stands, XAU is holding just shy of the USD 2632/oz peak, having benefited from a more concerted pullback in the DXY during the European session.


• For reference, action overnight saw the yellow metal dip to a USD 2605/oz trough. Monday’s base below at USD 2562/oz.

3M LME Copper: -0.3%

• Base metals generally pressured overnight as the prospect of Trump getting his tariff action underway from day 1 weighed on risk sentiment.


• China was initially pressured on this though benchmarks closed off lows, with some perhaps taking the view that talk of 10% extra levy is much better than some of the levels touted during the election. Though, it remains to be seen whether the Trump administration will use tariffs to the extent they have guided at times or if that is/was more of a bargaining tool.


• Given this, while base metals are in the red they have recovered from worst levels with 3M LME Copper back just above the USD 9k handle after slipping to a USD 8.96k trough earlier in the session.

26 Nov 2024 - 10:10- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk