EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude ekes mild gains as attention turns to Trump/Putin

Crude Oil: WTI Sep +0.5%, Brent Oct +0.5%

• Modestly firmer trade despite a stronger dollar and mixed risk sentiment, with oil traders' sights firmly set on the summit between US President Trump and Russian President Putin tomorrow.


• The meeting itself has been repeatedly downplayed (Full preview on the Newsquawk headline feed), with President Trump suggesting there is a good chance of a second meeting and he would like to do a second meeting almost immediately which would include Zelensky if the first meeting goes okay, but there may not be a second meeting if he feels it is inappropriate or if he does not get the answers he wants.


• US President Trump reportedly told those on Wednesday's call that he is willing to contribute US security guarantees for Ukraine with some conditions, via Politico, citing sources; openness that helps explain the cautious European optimism. Guarantees that are seen as key by Europe and Ukraine. However, Politico caveats that Trump did not elaborate on what he meant by security guarantees, and would only make this commitment of the effort is not part of NATO.


• Sticking with geopolitics, Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich said "[Israeli PM] Netanyahu supports settlement expansion and the imposition of sovereignty over the West Bank". Meanwhile, the UK, France, and Germany yesterday told the UN they are ready to reimpose sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme if it fails to resume talks by the end of August.


• NHC said Tropical Storm Erin continues westward, forecast to become a hurricane by Friday - worth keeping an eye on this as it is heading towards the Gulf of Mexico and could impact production/shipping.


• Elsewhere, Indian oil name BPCL's executive said they are tapping alternative oil supplies amid a lower discount on Russian oil sales, discounts have declined to USD 1.50/bbl. Purchased oil from Brazil, West Africa, and the US to replace some of the Russian oil. This comes in the context of US-India trade relations, which saw the US impose a 25% penalty on top of tariffs due to India's import of Russian oil.


• The US day sees the release of PPI metrics for July, which follow the in-line CPI data out earlier in the week; analysts expect headline PPI to rise 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.0%), with the annual rate rising to 2.5% Y/Y (prev. 2.3%); the core rate is expected to rise +0.2% M/M (prev. 0.0%), and the annual core rate is seen rising to 2.9% Y/Y from 2.6%.


• WTI currently resides in a 62.70-63.09/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 65.74-66.08/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold -0.3%, Silver -0.3%, Palladium +0.9%

• Mostly softer trade across precious metals against the backdrop of a firmer dollar intraday and with macro newsflow quiet ahead of the US day.


• Spot palladium outperforms after being the marked laggard yesterday.


• Spot silver briefly topped yesterday's high (USD 38.64/oz) before pulling back from its best levels, although within narrow ranges.


• Spot gold resides in a USD 3,341.45-3,374.80/oz range, wider than yesterday's USD 3,342.62-3,370.82/oz parameter and on either side of the 50 DMA at USD 3,348.91/oz.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.3%

• Copper futures pulled back from overnight highs and now sits with mild losses amid the firmer dollar and mixed risk environment, with the broader base metals sector reflective of the indecision.


• Chile's Codelco said the El Teniente accident caused a loss of 20,000 to 30,000 metric tons of copper, equivalent to USD 300mln, while it later stated that the El Teniente smelter is to restart on Thursday.


• 3M LME copper prices reside towards the bottom end of a USD 9,757.10-9,838.70/t range.


• Iron ore prices slipped overnight with traders citing the Chinese government's order to suspend construction activity ahead of the military parade in Beijing.

14 Aug 2025 - 10:05- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk