EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude dips while gold is stable ahead of the Alaska summit

Crude Oil: WTI Sep -0.7%, Brent Oct -0.7%

• Softer trade despite a weaker dollar and the risk-on sentiment, with oil traders' sights firmly set on the summit between US President Trump and Russian President Putin later today.


• The meeting itself has been repeatedly downplayed (Full preview on the Newsquawk headline feed), with President Trump suggesting there is a good chance of a second meeting and he would like to do a second meeting almost immediately which would include Zelensky if the first meeting goes okay, but there may not be a second meeting if he feels it is inappropriate or if he does not get the answers he wants.


• US President Trump on Thursday assigned a 25% chance that the first meeting in Alaska today is not successful, and said he could impose more sanctions if the meeting is not successful.


• Elsewhere, Russian Deputy PM Novak supported the energy ministry's idea to extend the ban on gasoline exports through September.


• On the weather front, NHC said Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to become a Hurricane today.


• WTI currently resides in a 63.42-64.15/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.36-67.06/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold +0.1%, Silver -0.1%, Palladium -1.0%

• Spot gold nursed some losses overnight after declining yesterday alongside a firmer dollar and higher yields due to the hot PPI data.


• Price action during the European morning has been uneventful amid a lack of pertinent catalysts.


• Spot gold found resistance at its 50 DMA (USD 3,349.26/oz) after slipping under the level yesterday on hot US PPI.


• Spot gold trades in a current USD 3,332.34-3,348.91/oz parameter, compared to yesterday's USD 3,329.85-3,374.80/oz range.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper +0.2%

• Copper futures are rangebound as tailwinds from the mostly positive risk tone are offset by disappointing Chinese data overnight.


• Chinese data for July underwhelmed, with retail sales (+3.7% Y/Y vs exp. 4.6%), factory output, and investment all slowing; factory and mining production rose 5.7% Y/Y (exp. 5.9%), the weakest since November, reflecting pressure from price war crackdowns and lingering Trump-era tariffs.


• Elsewhere, Chile's Codelco announced the smelter at the El Teniente copper mine has restarted.


• 3M LME copper prices currently trade in a narrow USD 9,757.70-9,799.45/t range.

15 Aug 2025 - 09:50- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk