EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude curtailed by negotiating updates, European risk tone weighs on gold

WTI/Brent: +0.8%/-2.0%

• Brent suffers losses of around USD 2/bbl on optimism of Middle-East negotiations, with Iran-E3 meetings today, and primarily after the two-week window Trump has provided.


• Note, while Brent is lower, WTI posts gains of USD 0.40/bbl, a discrepancy due to the lack of settlement amid the US holiday on Wednesday; directionally though, the benchmarks have moved largely in tandem. In terms of price action, crude is indecisive, with a bout of pressure seen pre-cash open, though no fundamental driver to explain this at the time.


• Turning to Thursday's drivers, the White House, on US President Trump’s behalf, said there was a “significant” chance of negotiations with Iran in the near future, and that the President would have to make a decision on whether to launch an attack in the next two weeks - a remark which was welcomed by sellers and saw WTI slip around USD 2/bbl in half an hour.


• Fresh this morning, US Secretary of State Rubio told his French counterpart that the US is ready for direct contact with the Iranians at any time, however the Iranian Foreign Minister noted that the nation would not speak with the US, while Israeli attacks continue. Note, the Iranian Minister said demands for a ceasefire have already started - this comes ahead of the Iran-E3 meeting today, we understand that nuclear talks will be the sole focus. Separately, US President Trump will attend a national security meeting today (11:00EST/16:00BST)

Gold: -0.6%

• Spot gold is suffering from the generally positive risk environment, currently holding around the USD 3350/oz mark but has been USD 10/oz lower; given the geopolitical relief, mentioned in the crude section.


• XAU has taken out the 21-DMA at USD 3345/oz, the next level comes via the June 12th low of USD 3338/oz.

3M LME Copper: -0.2%

• Base metals are in the red and failing to benefit from the positive European mood after the red metal failed to coat-tail on the broadly firmer European risk tone.


• Copper currently tests the USD 9600 mark, and resides within USD 9,565.45-9,654.6/t bounds.


• Potentially of note, the PBoC LPR setting was a non-event, with the central bank maintaining the 1-year and 5-year LPRs as expected.

20 Jun 2025 - 10:10- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk