EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude curtailed by Ifo, base metals watch Ragasa and XAU takes a breather

WTI/Brent: +0.2%/+0.3%

• Currently at the lower end of a c. USD 0.60/bbl band. Overnight action saw the complex gradually drifting lower before reports that the Israeli army had taken “another step” in the plan to occupy Gaza city spurred a move higher to peaks of USD 63.86/bbl and USD 68.12/bbl for WTI and Brent respectively.
• However, the move proved somewhat short-lived. Crude hit by a surprise German Ifo survey, with all metrics falling from the prior and both conditions and expectations printing below the forecast range. Potential demand-side concerns from this weighed and sent benchmarks back to fresh lows for the session of USD 63.25/bbl and USD 67.51/bbl respectively.
• Further bearish impulse potentially from Russia restarting a second unit at the UST-Luga facility and Russia saying Exxon is not the only firm interested in returning to Russia.
• Elsewhere, continued focus on Ukraine after US President Trump’s comment about Ukraine being able to win back all of its territory, a remark that took even Zelensky by surprise. Separately, the EU/E3 meeting spurred no Iranian breakthrough, but French President Macron is meeting Iranian President Pezeshkian today.

Gold: +0.2%

• Trading off the new ATH at USD 3791/oz made in yesterday's session, with the day's best price USD 12/oz lower at USD 3779/oz.
• Specifics light thus far, continued focus on the geopolitical drivers outlined above, these factors seemingly helped XAU recoup some of Tuesday’s pressure. However, USD strength is capping a return to mentioned highs.
• Ahead, a lack of data on the US docket today, though we do have Fed’s Daly (2027) this evening.

Copper: -0.1%

• 3M LME Copper continues to trade below key USD 10k/ton level and in a tight range amid concerns over Super Typhoon Ragasa.
• The main move this morning came alongside the German Ifo series, preventing 3M LME Copper from retesting USD 10k/t to the upside and pushing the metal back towards earlier USD 9.96k/T lows. Currently, in the red but just off that trough.
• No significant move to a Bloomberg interview with EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic, in this he said he will be meeting with USTR Greer in an attempt to restart stalled talks on aluminium and steel.