EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude curtailed by Ifo, base metals watch Ragasa and XAU takes a breather

WTI/Brent: +0.2%/+0.3%

• Currently at the lower end of a c. USD 0.60/bbl band. Overnight action saw the complex gradually drifting lower before reports that the Israeli army had taken “another step” in the plan to occupy Gaza city spurred a move higher to peaks of USD 63.86/bbl and USD 68.12/bbl for WTI and Brent respectively.


• However, the move proved somewhat short-lived. Crude hit by a surprise German Ifo survey, with all metrics falling from the prior and both conditions and expectations printing below the forecast range. Potential demand-side concerns from this weighed and sent benchmarks back to fresh lows for the session of USD 63.25/bbl and USD 67.51/bbl respectively.


• Further bearish impulse potentially from Russia restarting a second unit at the UST-Luga facility and Russia saying Exxon is not the only firm interested in returning to Russia.


• Elsewhere, continued focus on Ukraine after US President Trump’s comment about Ukraine being able to win back all of its territory, a remark that took even Zelensky by surprise. Separately, the EU/E3 meeting spurred no Iranian breakthrough, but French President Macron is meeting Iranian President Pezeshkian today.

Gold: +0.2%

• Trading off the new ATH at USD 3791/oz made in yesterday's session, with the day's best price USD 12/oz lower at USD 3779/oz.


• Specifics light thus far, continued focus on the geopolitical drivers outlined above, these factors seemingly helped XAU recoup some of Tuesday’s pressure. However, USD strength is capping a return to mentioned highs.


• Ahead, a lack of data on the US docket today, though we do have Fed’s Daly (2027) this evening.

Copper: -0.1%

• 3M LME Copper continues to trade below key USD 10k/ton level and in a tight range amid concerns over Super Typhoon Ragasa.


• The main move this morning came alongside the German Ifo series, preventing 3M LME Copper from retesting USD 10k/t to the upside and pushing the metal back towards earlier USD 9.96k/T lows. Currently, in the red but just off that trough.


• No significant move to a Bloomberg interview with EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic, in this he said he will be meeting with USTR Greer in an attempt to restart stalled talks on aluminium and steel.

24 Sep 2025 - 10:20- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk