EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude continues to inch higher, Copper soared overnight but has since retreated

WTI/Brent: +0.6%/+0.6%

• Benchmarks are attempting to claw back Tuesday’s losses after positive Ukraine updates, and poor consumer confidence weighed on Crude in yesterday’s session.


• The driver behind the strength this morning comes as traders digest the Ukraine and Russia maritime ceasefire. With Russia insisting that some conditions for the ceasefire are met before committing.


• This includes lifting “some” sanctions on Russian banks and a number of ags. companies. Specifically, the absence of any sanctions being lifted on oil tankers proves bullish for the complex this morning.


• While firmer, price action in today’s session has been more minimal than recent sessions with the benchmarks entirely within Tuesday’s parameters. At the time of writing WTI and Brent are printing fresh session highs, of USD 69.54 and 73.57/bbl respectively.


• Yesterday’s data saw US crude inventories draw more than expected at -4.6mln barrels, with gasoline at -3.3mln, distillates -1.3mln and Cushing -0.6mln.


• Elsewhere in geopolitics, and again a bullish factor, Yemeni armed forces targeted the USS Harry S. Truman and a number of US warships in the Red Sea as well as the Israeli regime’s military positions in Jaffa, according to IRNA


• Finally, another point to note are reports that oil loadings slowed down at Venezuela's ports following US tariffs and a wind down of Chevron's license.

Dutch TTF: -1.0%

• TTF is lower by around 1%, continuing the downward momentum in its space. The above geopolitics very much remains the key driver in the European gas space, with the progress towards a potential resumption of flows influencing. On the flip side, losses are capped by Russia only agreeing to comply if they have specific (non-Energy) sanctions lifted; a point which has been reiterated by the Kremlin this morning which also added that it is continuing contacts with the US and that they are satisfied with the dialogue.


• Overnight, Ukrainian drones were shot down over the Black Sea, hours after a partial ceasefire was agreed, according to Russia's defence ministry cited by Sky News

Gold: +U/C%

• Gold is indecisive, flat on the session, and around the middle of its USD 3013-3032/oz range, amid an uneventful dollar, and ahead of US data and Fed speakers including Kashkari and Musalem.

3M LME Copper: -1.7%

• US copper futures surged to a record high in Tuesday's session, strength which of course followed through to LME Copper, now just below the USD 10k/t level, and down a fair bit on the day, in a sell off from the recent surge.


• The base metal benefitted from the potential imposition of Trump tariffs, with reports from Bloomberg supporting the idea these copper specific tariffs would be implemented in the coming weeks.


• As a reminder, the US President last month, instructed an investigation into copper on "national security grounds”, and since this report the metal has been on an upward trend.


• ING highlights the arbitrage between Comex and LME reached all-time highs of more than USD 1,400/t on Tuesday, and notes that it creates incentives for traders to shift metal to the US to front-run any potential tariffs.

26 Mar 2025 - 10:05- EnergyGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk