EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude continues to falter, XAU loses some shine after hitting another ATH

WTI/Brent: -1.5%/-1.3%

• Crude benchmarks continuing to sell off following yesterday’s c. -3% move, extending to a low of USD 62.45/bbl and USD 66.10/bbl in WTI and Brent respectively.


• A pullback from highs made early in the session at USD 63.26/bbl and USD 66.84/bbl in WTI and Brent respectively before the benchmarks faltered to new lows. No clear/overt fundamental driver behind the continued downside.


• Thus far, crude-specific newsflow has been limited. As such, the move is likely a continuation of the bearishness from Monday which was driven by reports of an increased global oil supply from OPEC+ and the reopening of the Ceyhan pipeline.


• Furthermore, positive geopolitical news came late in yesterday’s session with Israeli PM Netanyahu agreeing to US President Trump’s 20-point peace plan for the Middle East. However, we still await word from Hamas and Netanyahu has since said he did not agree to a Palestinian state in talks with the US, according to AFP.

Gold: -0.4%

• Initially, spot gold extended on yesterday’s gains to a new ATH at USD 3871/oz early in the European session.


• However, gains have faded throughout the European morning and made a low of USD 3807/oz. No clear fundamental driver behind the gold pullback this morning, instead it seems to be a function of some profit taking in XAU with a view that the recent move may be a little stretched.


• Ahead, the complex will likely remain sensitive to updates on the potential US government shutdown, as Republicans and Democrats have until midnight ET to prevent one. That aside, eyes are on the JOLTs report and CB consumer confidence later today. JOLTs is expected to hold at 7.185mln, however consumer confidence is expected to fall to 96 from 97.4.

Copper: -0.7%

• Base metals remain muted throughout the European session, with 3M LME Copper trading in a tight c. USD 100/t range. Copper got to just shy of yesterday’s high, peaking at USD 10.44k/t before falling to a low of USD 10.35k/t and oscillating within these bounds during the European morning.


• Copper aside, Bloomberg reports that China has now banned all BHP iron ore cargoes as the ongoing pricing dispute deepens. As a reminder, in September China ordered its steel mills to halt purchases of just BHP's Jimblebar blend fines.


• Elsewhere, EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said the EU and US are "very soon going to propose the post 2026 safeguard measures" on steel, working with tariff-rate quotas, to deal with "global overcapacity". No details just yet on what the proposal will entail, though Sefcovic has previously called for a tariff-rate quota with low or no tariffs. Currently, the bloc is subject to a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum

30 Sep 2025 - 09:55- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk