EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude continues to consolidate while inflation weighs on the broader tone

Analysis details (10:40)

• WTI and Brent are firmer on the session and currently reside at the top-end of narrow circa. USD 1/bbl parameters which are just about within Monday’s range. Newsflow explicitly for the complex has been limited, with focus still firmly on geopolitics and the commencement of London International Energy Week, full schedule here.


• Specifically, WTI April and Brent May are towards the top-end of USD 75.55-76.67/bbl and USD 82.19-83.20/bbl boundaries. Given the lack of specific catalysts thus far, the complex is seemingly continuing to consolidate in-fitting with APAC/Monday’s trade and somewhat detached from the inflation-induced downturn in broader risk sentiment in European trade. With the complex perhaps deriving some upside given we are entering March which is when Russia is to unilaterally and voluntarily cut oil production by 500k BPD vs January’s 9.8-9.9mln BPD output.


• The session ahead includes the Weekly Private Inventory report, which is expected to print a modest build of 0.4mln while the internals are forecast to be more mixed, though with magnitudes similar in size. Such a build would be in marked contrast to last week’s 9.9mln headline build and the subsequent 7.65bln EIA figure.


• Moving to metals, spot gold is a touch softer on the session as initial USD-induced upside has faded as the index moves back into positive territory, albeit only modestly so. Currently, the yellow metal is just above Monday’s USD 1806/oz low with the 100-DMA at USD 1795/oz trending closer. LME Copper is marginally firmer but in familiar levels above USD 8k, while metals more broadly are mixed given the USD’s resilience and French/Spanish inflation metrics weighing.

28 Feb 2023 - 10:35- Research Sheet- Source: Newsquawk