EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude continues recent gains but has faded in-line with risk

WTI/Brent: +0.4%/+0.3%

• Crude prices are continuing on Wednesday’s gains, with both WTI and Brent up USD 0.25/bbl, close to session highs of USD 67.52/bbl and USD 71.0/bbl respectively. Complex remains buoyed by the tense geopolitical environment and also in the aftermath of the FOMC which boosted risk sentiment. Though in recent trade, some of that risk tone has deteriorated a touch with the Dollar Index at session highs.


• Wednesday’s EIA data saw a greater crude build than expected, albeit not as big as the private inventory figures. Distillates saw a larger than forecasted draw, while gasoline saw a shallower draw, both in fitting with the private figures on Tuesday. Overall, crude production fell 2k to 13.573mln. There was no sustained reaction to this data.


• US gasoline inventories have fallen for three consecutive weeks. They’re now the lowest since early January. Gasoline inventories dropped despite implied demand falling over the week and refinery utilisation increasing marginally. Overall, recent data is supportive for the market, ING notes.


• In other news, US President Trump is reportedly considering extending Chevron’s license to pump oil in Venezuela, and the US Energy Secretary confirmed the signing of an LNG export approval for the CP2 project, emphasizing the administration’s urgency in expanding electricity supply and reducing prices.

Dutch TTF: -0.38%

• TTF prices rallied yesterday, and are giving back gains a little, now trading at EUR 43.20/MWh. Nothing new in terms of fresh catalysts, but it seems no news is good news for the European Benchmark. ING highlights investment funds, which had been heavily selling TTF in recent weeks, reversed course over the last reporting week, buying 1/TWh to leave them with a net long of 127.6/TWh.


• According to ANZ, Storage is at a level not seen since the energy crisis of 2021-22 due to strong demand during the heating season.

Gold: +0.12%

• Spot Gold has traded sideways in European trade, but has dipped a touch off overnight highs; the yellow-metal is currently off by around USD 4/oz in a current 3,038.78-3,057.51/oz range.


• The modest downside seen in today’s session, alongside the above, may be aided by the firmer dollar, with the DXY up half of a percent ahead of today’s risk events, which sees US Philly Fed Index, Jobless Claims, BoE & SARB Policy Announcements, along with Trump Executive orders.


• Today's central bank meetings came as expected, and in the rearview, Wednesday’s FOMC, supported the yellow metal.

3M LME Copper: U/C

• Copper futures extended on this week's rally and reclaimed the USD 10,000/t status overnight. A bout of pressure was seen around 08:00 GMT, which entirely erased overnight gains, and pulled the base metal below the five figure level, with no specific catalyst.


• Current levels may be supported by front-loading ahead of tariffs, along with the White House’s copper import investigation.

20 Mar 2025 - 10:15- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk