EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude contained, gold wanes, base metals supported

WTI/Brent: +0.2%/+0.2%

• Crude Futures trade towards the top of their narrow intraday parameters, with Brent and WTI each up around 0.10/bbl as tailwinds from the mostly positive risk appetite are being offset following "very positive and constructive" talks between the US and Iran over the weekend.


• The modest upside we see this morning can be attributed to the dollar and improving risk appetite, the former of which has failed to lift from its three-year lows, with the DXY remaining just below 99.50.


• On the supply front, Iraq signed an undersea oil exports pipeline deal with Italy’s Micoperi and Turkey’s Esta which will have a 2.4mln bpd capacity.

Dutch TTF: +1.5%

• The Dutch TTF is also being lifted by the positive risk tone, though gains are capped by the positive newsflow coming from the Russia-Ukaine front.


• In terms of price action, the European benchmark trades towards its session lows of EUR 33.78/MWh, after being pressured just around the European equity open, with no specific driver.


• Risk sentiment was lifted this morning after the US President exempted some electronics from reciprocal tariffs, placing them under the existing 20% fentanyl classification.


• On the geopolitical front, Russia continues to strike Ukraine, and some commentators note this could signal Russia’s attempt to win further territory before a ceasefire, with the nation capturing Yelyzavetivka, in eastern Ukraine.


• Russia’s Kremlin said relations with the US are moving ahead very well and mutual visits by Russian and US envoys are very good reliable channels for communicating positions to each other.

Precious Metals: Gold -0.5%, Silver -0.3%, Palladium +2.0%

• Mostly softer trade across precious metals with spot gold and silver unwinding some of their risk premium after US President Trump watered down his semiconductor tariffs, clarifying that it is separate to the basket of reciprocal tariffs, whilst US-Iran talks also went ahead over the weekend, with a second round planned.


• Spot palladium outperforms amid the upbeat tone across the auto sector following the aforementioned update.


• Goldman Sachs forecasts prices to increase to USD 3,700 by year-end with an upside tail risk of reaching USD 4,500/oz.


• Spot gold resides in a USD 3,213.35-3,245.84/oz parameter vs Friday's 3,177.26-3,245.49/oz.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.4%

• Mostly firmer trade following the tariff clarification on Friday and over the weekend, whilst overnight, reports pointed to more imminent Chinese stimulus.


• China is to roll out more monetary easing steps with China to ramp up counter-cyclical policy adjustments and implement various monetary policy measures in the future, according to Shanghai Securities News. China may cut rates and RRR if the trade war hurts the economy, according to PBoC-backed Financial News citing former PBoC adviser Yu Yongding.


• 3M LME copper resides in a current and narrow USD 9,144.35-9,252.00/t range.

14 Apr 2025 - 09:50- MetalsGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk