EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude contained awaiting developments on numerous factors, metals bid

WTI/Brent: +0.5%/+0.4%

• Contained as the Lebanon ceasefire comes into effect and we await any indications of this being taken further into a broader halt to the conflict or deteriorating and being breached.


• On the first point, journalist Elster reported that Hamas says it is ready for truce in Gaza after the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah.


• Elsewhere, developments have been light as we await the packed and front-loaded US data docket this afternoon, metrics which will provide direction for the USD and markets more broadly.


• As was the case on Tuesday, reporting continues to focus on OPEC potentially deferring the long-planned resumption of production in order to avoid downside in oil prices. OPEC+ is set to meet on Sunday; as a reminder, in recent weeks there have been numerous sources that they are to defer December’s planned increase by one month.


• On the above, desks have in recent weeks taken the view that a delay is likely until Q1-2025 with some, such as Citi, looking for as far out as April for the unwinding of output cuts.


• Overall, benchmarks are in narrow ranges and well within familiar territory awaiting updates around the ceasefire, US data and OPEC+. Holding just above USD 69/bbl and USD 73/bbl respectively.

Gold: +0.6%

• Gleaning support from the tepid risk tone, which has been deteriorating throughout the morning, and softer USD. As such, XAU is at a USD 2653/oz peak with resistance ahead at USD 2673/oz from November 21st. If breached, we look to the figure and then Monday’s USD 2721/oz peak.


• Direction will likely be dictated by the packed US data agenda, which will be one of the deciding factors into December’s Fed. That aside, any updates on the geopolitical front and particularly the Lebanon ceasefire will draw focus.

3M LME Copper: +1.0%

• Firmer, despite the downbeat risk tone. Action which comes as the complex bounces back from Tuesday’s pressure with positive fundamental drivers somewhat lacking thus far.


• However, the action thus far has only been sufficient to take 3M LME Copper back to the USD 9.07k region it began yesterday’s session at. And by extension remains shy of the USD 9.1k mark which printed on Monday.

27 Nov 2024 - 10:05- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk