EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude complex resilient for now, but base metals falter amid risk aversion and Dollar revival

Analysis details (10:56)

WTI and Brent front-month futures are resilient to the broader risk downturn, and firmer Dollar as OPEC+ member members gear up for what is expected to be a smooth meeting. The complex experienced some fleeting downside amid reports that Russia has withdrawn troops from Snake Island - Russian press framed the withdrawal as "a gesture of goodwill", whilst separate reports suggest Russia has pulled back following a series of heavy attacks. Nonetheless, the move pared back shortly as nothing indicated that the gap between Ukrainian and Russian demands to end the war had narrowed, with attacks still reported elsewhere. Back to OPEC+, the JMMC will meet at 12:00BST/07:00EDT, followed by the OPEC+ decision-making meeting slated for 12:30BST/07:30EDT. OPEC+ is expected to stick to the output plan telegraphed at the last confab – a total production increase of 648k BPD for August – with recent sources backing this view. To recap, at the start of June, OPEC+ members agreed to hike output by 648k BPD in July and August – with the September additions split across the two months. Markets may also keep an eye on members' plans after the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) expires. As things stand, a smooth OPEC+ meeting is expected, although surprises cannot be discounted after the previous meeting saw last-minute sources shift expectations. In other news, due to anti-government protests, Ecuador's Oriente Crude exports were suspended after a force majeure was declared. WTI Aug meanders around USD 110/bbl and Brent Sep around USD 112.75/bbl. Elsewhere, spot gold is uneventful, around USD 1,815/oz after testing yesterday's low (USD 1,811.70/oz) – potential support at the 15th June low at USD 1,806.59. Base metals are softer across the board amid the broader risk profile. Dalian and Singapore iron ore futures were on track for quarterly losses, whilst LME copper pulled back further from the USD 8,500/t mark.

30 Jun 2022 - 10:55- MetalsResearch Sheet- Source: Newsquawk