EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude clipped by the ceasefire, XAU loses its shine, base metals find a floor

WTI/Brent: -3.5%/-3.5%

• Crude drilled lower overnight after the announcement of an Israel-Iran ceasefire which came into effect at 05:00 BST. Benchmarks now trade lower by around -3.5%, with recent whipsawing seen on reports of ceasefire violations.


• In an update which lifted benchmarks this morning, the IDF said that it had detected missiles launched from Iran, which the nation said it had intercepted. Far-Right Israeli Finance Minister, Smotrich said the ceasefire was violated, and that Tehran will tremble in response. More recently, downticks were seen across the complex after Iran denied firing missiles towards Israel, we now look for further clarity.


• Late on Monday, US President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel which came into effect at 05:00 BST today (Further details on the headline feed). Subsequently, crude benchmarks tumbled 9% on Monday (Partly to the “kind” Iranian attacks on a US base in Qatar), and have added to losses this morning, bringing Brent to June 11th lows (Beginning of the conflict), erasing all gains made on the “12 day war” between Israel and Iran.


• In terms of technicals, Brent has surpassed its 21, 100, and 200DMA since the European close.

Gold: -1.3%

• Spot Gold is firmly in the red, towards session lows and suffering from the positive mood after the US announced an Israel-Iran ceasefire.


• As mentioned in the crude section, the recent lift in uncertainty has benefitted the haven, lifting it from lows.


• Earlier in the session, losses were capped by the June 11th low at USD 3315.24/oz, where the Middle-East tensions began. For reference, the day’s session low is USD 3315.90/oz.


• Ahead, there are a number of Central Bank speakers, including Fed Chair Powell, and ECB President Lagarde.

3M LME Copper: +0.7%

• Base metals are trading firmer given the positive risk environment, alongside the softer USD.


• 3M LME Copper currently trades towards session highs of USD 9,736/t and like gold and oil, has completely reversed the moves made since the beginning of the Middle-East conflict.


• Rio Tinto and Hancock Prospecting will invest USD 1.61bln to develop Hope Downs 2 iron ore project in Western Australia's Pilbara region.

24 Jun 2025 - 10:05- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk