EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude clipped by OPEC+ production reports, XAU continues to climb

WTI/Brent: -1.2%/+-1.1%

• Crude benchmarks pressured amid reports that OPEC+ could increase production quotas at the October meeting, further bearishness stemming from the resumption of flows on the Ceyhan pipeline and potentially from Moldova.


• On OPEC, ahead of the October 5th OPEC+ meeting, Reuters citing sources reported that production quotas would be increased by at least 137k BPD for November at the gathering; a figure that matches the planned October increase. However, sources via Kepler’s Bakr outline that "there have been no consultations with regards to the group’s November policy yet."


• The reported increase, while notable, is a drop from the 547k BPD increase agreed for September in August. Furthermore, the actual impact of the increase is likely to be less as in August OPEC cautioned that a lack of spare capacity among nations meant the enacted supply increase would be less than the headline figure for September; a narrative that remains in play for October and November.


• On the pipeline, Iraq’s Oil Minister said that flows via Turkey’s Ceyhan pipeline have resumed after 2 years of halting flows.


• Elsewhere, geopols in focus as Moldova’s pro-EU party has secured parliamentary re-election despite reports of Russian interference to prevent this. Furthermore, the US and Israel are in the final stages of a 21-point Gaza peace plan with the aim of ending the war and opening the way for wider Middle East peace; however, Hamas is yet to agree.


• Altogether, the above reports have pushed WTI and Brent lower this morning to downside of near enough USD 1/bbl at most and at respective lows of USD 64.72/bbl and USD 69.27/bbl.

Gold: +1.6%

• Continued upward action for precious metals, both spot gold and silver at fresh highs for the day and yet another ATH for XAU at USD 3819.8/oz thus far.


• Specifics for the space light with the yellow metal firmer despite the constructive risk tone but potentially benefiting from apprehension into the week’s key labour market data from the US and the looming government shutdown, a shutdown that could impact the delivery of Friday’s BLS report. USD pressure is another source of strength.

Copper: +0.9%

• Copper was modestly firmer in APAC trade, benefiting from the USD though with gains capped by the cautious risk tone at the time and apprehension into a packed week. Since, 3M LME Copper has continued to tick higher, at a USD 10.29k peak but shy of last week’s USD 10.319k best.


• No significant update on the Freeport Grasberg situation.


• No move to a handful of remarks from Chinese officials, ahead of the October 20th-23rd fourth plenum.

29 Sep 2025 - 10:05- MetalsEU Research- Source: Newsquawk