EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude choppy on mixed geopolitics regarding Russia/Ukraine and Iranian nuclear talks

Crude Oil: WTI Jul -0.2%, Brent Jul -0.2%

• Subdued price action this morning despite a softer dollar but amid a cautious risk tone in Europe and following some of the more sanguine tones from US President Trump regarding Russia, whilst upside was seen on less conciliatory commentary from the Iranian Supreme Leader.


• To recap, US President Trump posted on Truth that he completed a two-hour call with Russian President Putin, which he believes went very well, while Russia and Ukraine are to immediately begin negotiations on a ceasefire and an end to the war. Trump said the conditions for that will be negotiated between the two parties, while he added the tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent and that Russia wants to do large-scale trade with the US when this catastrophic “bloodbath” is over, which Trump agrees to and he also stated that progress was made during the call with Putin.


• On the flip side, regarding Iranian nuclear talks, Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said he "does not think nuclear talks with the US will be successful", via Mehr news, who added that the US is making outrageous demands. These comments sparked some short-lived upside but nonetheless pushed the upper end of today's range before waning. As a reminder, reports yesterday, via WSJ's Norman, suggested the next set of nuclear talks could occur over the weekend in Italy.


• In other energy news, Equinor is to resume its USD 5bln Empire Wind project after the Trump administration reversed its decision, which now allows for a restart of construction.


• Aside from that, energy-specific newsflow has been quiet with WTI currently in a USD 61.60-62.63/bbl range while its Brent counterpart resides in a USD 65.00-65.72/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold -0.1%, Silver -0.1%, Palladium -0.3%

• Relatively flat and lacklustre trade across precious metals amid a lack of pertinent macro drivers this morning, and following a relatively contained session on Monday.


• There is little to add aside from the aforementioned geopolitics, whilst a slew of central bank speakers are slated for today, although speakers will likely give balanced commentary given the broader uncertainty surrounding tariffs.


• Spot gold resides in a current USD 3.204.67-3.232.85/oz range

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.2%

• Mixed trade in narrow ranges amid a lack of pertinent catalysts during the European session, whilst the broader risk tone remains cautious.


• Overnight, the PBoC cut their LPRs by 10bps as widely telegraphed, whilst this did little to spur advances across base metals.


• Furthermore, Chinese President Xi called for continuous efforts to build the manufacturing industry, according to Xinhua.


• 3M LME copper currently resides in a USD 9,443.05-9,520.90/t.

20 May 2025 - 09:55- ForexEU Research- Source: Newsquawk