EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude choppy on Iran comments, palladium outperforms, and base metals trade mixed

Crude Oil: WTI Jul -0.3%, Brent Aug -0.5%

• Initially a mild upward tilt across crude contracts, with futures moving between modest gains and losses. For the most part, the benchmarks have been relatively contained after the prior day's declines despite comments from OPEC Secretary-General Al Ghais who sees no peak in oil demand on the horizon, while prices were not helped by bearish private sector inventory data.


• EIA STEO stated that 2025 world oil demand is seen at 103.5mln BPD (prev. 103.7mln BPD in the prior forecast) and 2026 world oil demand is seen at 104.6mln BPD (prev. 104.6mln BPD).


• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.4mln (exp. -2mln), Distillates +3.7mln (exp. +0.8mln), Gasoline +3.0mln (exp. +0.9mln), Cushing -0.7mln.


• Futures then fell this morning in a move that coincided with the Iranian Foreign Minister suggesting "As we resume talks on Sunday, it is clear that an agreement that can ensure the continued peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program is within reach—and could be achieved rapidly." Iranian Foreign Minister then said "Trump's position on Iran's possession of nuclear weapons could form the basis of the agreement ", according to Al Arabiya.


• WTI Jul resides close to the bottom of a USD 64.60-65.25/bbl range while Brent Aug sits in a USD 66.47-67.07/bbl parameter at the time of writing.


• Note, that power prices in Europe also saw a jump after EDF reported signs of "stress corrosion" at a reactor, in turn stoking fears that power generation could be curtailed.

Precious Metals: Gold +0.7%, Silver -0.1%, Palladium +2.4%

• Spot gold gradually edges higher but just about remains within yesterday's parameters after recent choppy performance and with US CPI on the horizon.


• Spot gold resides in a USD 3,315.59-3,348.57/oz range at the time of writing, within yesterday's USD 3,302.01-3,349.28/oz parameter.


• Spot palladium outperforms with some suggesting technical momentum, whilst the US-Sino trade updates could also be conducive for the auto sector.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.5%

• Mixed trade across base metals, in-fitting with the current tentative tone across markets heading into US CPI.


• Overnight, copper futures struggled for direction despite the positive risk tone with trade restricted amid light details from the US-China trade talks.


• Elsewhere, production data included: Chile's Codelco Copper Production rose 20.5% Y/Y in April to 114,600 tonnes, while Collahuasi copper production fell 13.5% Y/Y in April to 36.6k tonnes and Escondida copper production rose 31% Y/Y in April to 128.4k tonnes; Chinese steel production is expected to decline by 4% in 2025, according to the China Iron and Steel Association.


• 3M LME copper currently resides in a USD 9,705.35-9,788.00/t range at the time of writing.

11 Jun 2025 - 10:25- MetalsGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk