EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude bid after updates from Israel, metals remain softer across the board

Crude Oil: WTI Dec'24 +0.7%/ Brent Jan'25 +0.6%

• Mild upward bias across the crude contracts after Israel's Defence Minister Katz poured cold water on hopes of a Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire, suggesting there will be no ceasefire and Israel will continue to hit Hezbollah with full force.
• Add to that, UKMTO received reports of incident 70NM southwest of Yemen's Hodeida; vessel reports multiple explosions nearby - further underscoring the tense geopolitical environment.
• Elsewhere, overnight reports suggested a Russian navy carrier of hypersonic missiles conducts drills while passing through the English Channel, according to Russian state agencies.
• On the flip side, BSEE said 25.69% of oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico is shut in response to Rafael (prev. 27.6%) and 13.06% of nat gas production is shut in (prev. 16.67%).
• Recent reports suggested UK is reportedly nearing a free-trade agreement with oil-rich Gulf nations including Saudi Arabia, according to Bloomberg sources.
• WTI resides towards the upper end of a USD 67.75-68.56/bbl range. Brent towards the top of a USD 71.55-72.36/bbl parameter.
• Ahead, traders look to OPEC MOMR at 11:40GMT/ 06:40EST - although this is not likely to have an immediate market impact, with much of the release backwards-looking.

Nat Gas: Dutch TTF -0.6%/ US Henry Hub +1.0%

• Mixed trade with Dutch TTF giving back some gains after settling over 3.0% higher on Monday. US prices continue gains after settling higher by almost 10% yesterday,
• Forecasts for cold weather cited for the gains, with Dutch TTF also supported by low wind power generation, according to ING.

Precious Metals: Spot gold -1.1%/ Spot Silver -1.4%

• Softer across the board amid the continued gains in the USD on the back of the ongoing Trump trade.
• Broad based losses seen across precious metals with spot palladium narrowly underperforming.
• Spot gold fell under USD 2,600/oz resides towards the bottom of a USD 2,590.89-2,627.23/oz parameter with the next level to the downside at USD 2,584.87/oz - the low from September 20th.

Base Metals: 3M LME copper -1.6%

• Lower across the board amid the firmer Dollar and a continuation of the disappointed from the NPC Standing Committee meeting last week.
• Decision Desk HQ projects Republicans have won enough seats to remain in control of the House - making it easier for Trump to pass anti-China bills.
• China plans to cut homebuying taxes to boost the property sector in which the home purchase deed tax could be reduced to 1% from 3%, according to Bloomberg - little sustained reaction seen.
• 3M LME copper fell to levels under USD 9,200/t, iron ore slipped back under USD 100/t on Monday.
• ING "believe high iron ore availability in China will continue to put pressure on prices."