EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude benchmarks slightly higher despite Gaza ceasefire deal, XAU takes a breather

Crude Oil: WTI/ Brent +0.2%

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  Crude benchmarks traded rangebound as the European session got underway, as Hamas and Israel agreed to the first part of the Gaza ceasefire. WTI and Brent briefly dipped to USD 61.78/bbl and USD 65.55/bbl, respectively, before reversing higher to peak at USD 62.84/bbl and USD 66.52/bbl, respectively.


• Under the ceasefire agreement, Israel is to withdraw to a designated line inside Gaza within 24 hours of cabinet approval, while Hamas will release all living hostages by Monday in exchange for approximately 2,000 Palestinian prisoners.


• The Israeli cabinet is to meet at 15:00BST on the agreement.


• Despite geopolitical tensions easing and a broad consensus that the oil market remains bearish, crude benchmarks continue to pare back on losses from last week's selloff.

Precious Metals: XAU -0.1%, XAG +0.8%

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  Spot XAU is taking a breather this morning as the yellow metal formed a new ATH at USD 4059/oz in yesterday’s session. The metal fell down to USD 4k/oz during the APAC session as the Gaza ceasefire eased geopolitical tensions and amid a strengthening dollar following the hawkish Fed minutes.


• Within the FOMC minutes, almost all participants supported the 25bp cut and saw it appropriate to ease policy further this year. There was a majority that emphasised upside risks to their inflation outlook, which resulted in the hawkish tone.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper +1.8%

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  Base metals extend higher as Chinese markets re-open following a week-long holiday. 3M LME Copper dipped to a low of USD 10.59k/t before reversing c. USD 280/t higher as China announced export controls on rare earth materials.


• Within the announcement, foreign firms and individuals must obtain a dual-use items export licence to export rare earth materials. This is to come into effect on December 1st.


• Re-opening of China gives Chinese traders their first opportunity to react to signs of supply disruptions, with the latest being Teck cutting output guidance from its mine in Chile.


• Zambia’s copper output is expected to rise as copper miners invest USD 10bln to boost output. This comes as demand for copper rises as there is a global shift to electrify industry, transport, and increase renewable generation.

09 Oct 2025 - 10:00- MetalsGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk