EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude benchmarks fall as Middle East tensions ease, XAU pulls back from new ATHs

Crude Oil: WTI/ Brent -2.1%

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  Crude benchmarks are trending lower as renewed trade worries, easing geopolitical tensions, and an oversupplied oil market weigh on prices. Benchmarks are steadily declining as the European session continues, with WTI and Brent currently c. USD 1.7/bbl lower and trading near lows at USD 58.20/bbl and USD 62.00/bbl, respectively.


• IEA lowered its 2025 oil demand growth forecast to 710k bpd from 740k bpd, raising its estimate for oil oversupply in 2026. This forecast of an oversupplied oil market has been a key theme in the past week, as the Brent futures curve turned contango late last week.


• On trade, China placed limits on five US entities and threatened further retaliatory measures, despite WSJ reports in Monday’s session that US President Trump wanted to send a message of de-escalation with China.


• Following on from a positive start to the Gaza ceasefire, US President Trump said via Truth Social that there is more peace in the Middle East to come.

Precious Metals: XAU +0.7%, XAG +0.6%

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  Precious metals extended to new ATHs during APAC trade, with XAU and XAG peaking at USD 4180/oz and USD 53.59/oz respectively, before selling off as US President Trump hints of total peace in the Middle East.


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  XAG suddenly dropped by over 8% over the space of 45 minutes, while XAU followed similarly, as traders use any opportunity to take profits after recent run in the complex.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -2.5%

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  Base metals have reversed Monday’s gains, with 3M LME Copper returning to USD 10.5k/t from a peak of USD 10.86k/t, as recent dollar strength weighs on the commodity space.


• Wild swings in copper prices show a market that is torn between heightened trade risk and structural challenges, as mine disruptions and increased demand from electrification continue to form a floor in the market.

14 Oct 2025 - 10:15- ForexEU Research- Source: Newsquawk