EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Crude and gold subdued amid Trump-Putin summit on Friday

Crude Oil: WTI Sep -0.4%, Brent Oct -0.4%

• Crude futures remain subdued after last week's declines with pressure as some geopolitical risk premia unwinds ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting scheduled for this coming Friday, with no sanctions imposed against Russia after Trump's deadline passed last Friday. US President Trump said he will meet with Russian President Putin on August 15th in Alaska, while Russia’s Kremlin confirmed an agreement was reached to organise a meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump. The White House is reportedly considering inviting Ukrainian President Zelensky to the Alaska summit, and President Trump is open to a trilateral meeting in Alaska, although the White House is currently planning for a bilateral summit as requested by Russian President Putin.


• That being said, it is difficult to envision a smooth solution to the Russia-Ukraine war with Moscow demanding Ukraine give up some territory, a red line for Kyiv. "If we do see some level of de-escalation, it would remove sanction risk from the oil market. This would likely drive prices lower, given the bearish fundamentals," say the analysts at ING.


• Meanwhile, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said Tehran may agree to specific restrictions on nuclear activities in exchange for lifting sanctions.


• Elsewhere, UBS expects Brent to trade unchanged at USD 68/bbl at end-September, then sees a decline to USD 62/bbl by end-2025 and March 2026. UBS sees a recovery back to USD 65/bbl by mid-2026, and has narrowed its forecast for the WTI discount to Brent to USD 3/bbl (prev. USD 4/bbl).


• In the Middle East, Israeli PM Netanyahu spoke with US President Trump and discussed Israel’s plan to take control of the remaining Hamas strongholds in Gaza to bring an end to the war in Gaza.


• Meanwhile, Iraq set the September Basrah medium crude official selling price to Asia at plus USD 2.15/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average and to Europe at minus USD 1.30/bbl vs Dated Brent, while it set the OSP to North and South America at minus USD 1.00/bbl vs ASCI, according to SOMO.


• In terms of natural gas, Bloomberg reports that Germany’s grid regulator is investigating a potential instance of gas market manipulation and warned that the event may raise energy bills for consumers.


• WTI currently resides in a 63.02-63.70/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 65.81-66.47/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold -1.1%, Silver -1.1%, Palladium +0.1%

• Spot gold pulled back after the choppy performance on Friday, and with resistance around the USD 3,400/oz level.


• The yellow metal may also be experiencing a geopolitical risk unwind ahead of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska this coming Friday.


• Gold markets were roiled late last week after US Customs unexpectedly classified 1kg and 100oz bullion bars—key settlement sizes for COMEX—as tariff-eligible, triggering a record New York–London price spread before the White House signalled an imminent executive order to “clarify” the policy, in turn leading to an ease in prices.


• Price action this morning has seen the yellow metal slide from a USD 3,401.40/oz peak to a current low at USD 3,358.80/oz, with the 50 DMA seen at USD 3,349.80/oz.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.3%

• Copper futures traded indecisively overnight in the absence of major catalysts and after mixed inflation data from its largest buyer, China. Thereafter, the base metals complex tilted mostly lower shortly after the European open as risk waned further.


• In copper newsflow, Chile’s Codelco said the El Teniente copper mine was approved for a restart by the labour authority, and it later announced that it restarted sectors of the El Teniente mine, plant and smelter.


• In lithium newsflow, Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH) suspended production at a major lithium mine in China’s Jiangxi province for at least three months, according to sources familiar with the matter.


• Elsewhere, China's Baosteel (600019 CH) says it is to lift hot and cold rolled coil prices for September delivery by USD 200/metric ton and USD 300/metric ton, respectively.


• 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,744.65-9,797.85/t range.

11 Aug 2025 - 10:15- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk