EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Commodities fail to benefit from a softer Dollar

Crude Oil: WTI Feb -0.2%/Brent Mar -0.2%

• Subdued trade in the crude complex as prices take a breather from the prior day's surge, which saw WTI and Brent settle higher by USD 1.41/bbl and USD 1.29/bbl respectively - perhaps have been aided by the rise in natgas prices in the wake of the Ukraine/Gazprom transit deal expiring without a renewal.
• The session this morning sees some losses across the benchmarks with the overall tone of the market cautious but newsflow on the lighter side.
• In geopolitics, hostage negotiations are reportedly not stuck and there has been progress, via The Jerusalem Post citing sources familiar with the matter, whilst Israeli negotiators will travel to Doha on Friday for a last-ditch effort to reach a breakthrough in the negotiations over the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal before Trump assumes office, according to Axios citing Israeli officials.
• WTI currently resides in a USD 72.98-73.48/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 75.74-76.26/bbl parameter.

Nat Gas: Dutch TTF -0.7%

• Slightly softer intraday in tandem with broader energy markets, with Dutch TTF front-month oscillating on either side of EUR 50/MWh.
• European gas is still set for weekly gains after the Gazprom/Ukraine transit deal expired, with alternate LNG supply said to be at a premium and in competition with Asia.

Precious Metals: Gold -0.1%, Silver +0.5%, Palladium +1.3%

• Mixed trade across precious metals with Palladium clearly benefiting from the softer Dollar, whilst silver ekes mild gains and gold trades subdued.
• Macro drivers have been light on the first week of 2025, although action (and volume) is set to pick up in pace next week, with ISM Services PMI, FOMC Minutes, and US NFP all on the slate.
• Spot gold resides towards the middle of a current USD 2,649.95-2,665.40/oz range after briefly topping its 50 DMA (USD 2,658.27/oz).

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper +0.2%

• Modest gains in copper prices but with price action contained to a tight range between 8,781.50-8,852.00/t awaiting the next catalyst.
• Elsewhere, Singapore iron ore futures fell under USD 100/t with traders citing faltering demand after most steel makers in China completed pre-holiday restocking.