EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Choppy crude trade whilst precious metals await Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech

Crude Oil: WTI Oct -0.1% Brent Oct -0.1%

• Choppy trade across the crude complex despite the firmer Dollar but alongside the choppy mood across the stock market, with equity bourses swinging from modest losses to mild gains.


• Initial upside in the crude complex this morning came amid diminishing optimism surrounding Russia-Ukraine, in which US President Trump said, "We will know in about two weeks regarding Russia-Ukraine". Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia's overnight attacks show that Moscow is trying to avoid the need for meetings aimed at ending the war.


• On that note, the Hungarian Foreign Minister said oil deliveries to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline have been halted due to attacks near the Russia-Belarus border. Deliveries seem to be suspended for at least five days, according to reports.


• Further, on the demand side of the equation, German GDP was revised lower for Q2.


• Elsewhere, UBS expects Brent to stay in the upper part of the USD 60-70/bbl trading range for now and then move to the lower part later in the year. UBS expects oil demand to peak for the year in August and modestly decline over the coming months. With South American supply expected to increase further, the oil market should become better supplied in the months ahead, the desk said.


• WTI currently resides in a 62.05-62.68/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 67.44-67.95/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold -0.3, Silver -0.3, Palladium +0.1%

• Mostly subdued trade across precious metals amid the firmer Dollar as participants look ahead to Fed Chair Powell's speech at 15:00BST /10:00 EDT which is expected to see a text release. Attention will focus on whether Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks indicate any shift in views since recent US data and if he signals a September rate cut, which markets price at ~70% probability (Full primer available on the Newsquawk headline feed)


• Spot gold trades under its 50 DMA (3,346.01) in a USD 3,325.38-3,340.14/oz range.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper +0.1%

• Mixed within narrow ranges amid a lack of pertinent drivers this morning ahead of risk events.


• Copper futures plateaued overnight following the prior day's recovery, which was facilitated by strong US Manufacturing PMI data, but with further upside capped amid some cautiousness heading into Fed Chair Powell's key speech.


• 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,714.05-9,781.00/t range.


• Dalian iron ore ended trade -0.7%, posting its second week of losses with traders citing soft demand despite rising steel output, whilst stockpiles of iron ore also climbed.

22 Aug 2025 - 09:55- ForexEU Research- Source: Newsquawk