EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Choppy crude trade, gold awaits NFP, copper stable

Crude Oil: WTI Sep -0.4%, Brent Oct -0.3%

• Choppy trade within tight ranges following yesterday's macro-induced losses as markets awaited Trump's revised tariffs.


• In terms of the highlights from the announcement, the average US tariff rate has now risen to 15.2% (prev. 13.3%; 2.3% pre-Trump). China was not mentioned; EU/UK/Japan had their rates as agreed; Switzerland, New Zealand, and Canada's tariffs were increased, while Mexico pays a lower tariff for 90 days.


• All in all, the revisions have resulted in risk aversion across the markets, albeit crude futures are somewhat cushioned as traders anticipate details on the penalties to nations importing Russian crude.


• On the data front, the latest S&P Global China General Manufacturing PMI (formerly sponsored by Caixin) missed forecasts and surprisingly returned to contractionary territory.


• Ahead, traders look towards the NFP for a macro impulse, which will thereafter be followed by the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.


• WTI resides in a 68.91-69.55/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 71.44-72.00/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold +0.1%, Silver -0.7%, Palladium -0.1%

• Mostly softer despite a relatively stable dollar (DXY oscillates around 100) and in spite of the broad downbeat risk tone.


• Newsflow has been light for the complex as traders look ahead to the US jobs report, followed by the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.


• The highlight of the day is the US jobs report for July, where the headline is expected to show 110k nonfarm payrolls added (vs 147k prior), and the unemployment rate is expected to rise by one-tenth to 4.2% (see below for preview). The ISM manufacturing data for July is released afterwards, where the headline is seen at 49.5 from 49.0


• On the speakers' slate, the desk is expecting remarks from Fed Governors Waller and Bowman following their dissent at this week's FOMC meeting, where both called for 25bps rate reductions.


• Spot gold resides in a USD 3,281.74-3,300.54/oz range at the time of writing, within yesterday's USD 3,276.28-3,314.98/oz parameter.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper -0.1%

• Relatively stable trade following yesterday's slide, which saw the CME-LME arb collapse as the US copper tariff was not as bad as feared, as the 50% tariff applied to copper pipes and wiring, whilst omitting copper input materials such as ores, concentrates and cathodes.


• Iron ore futures overnight were mixed on Dalian and SGX, but set for weekly losses as traders cited fading Chinese stimulus hopes, whilst there still has not been an update on an extension to the US-China trade truce.


• 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,597.85-9,696.30/t range.

01 Aug 2025 - 10:19- ForexData- Source: Newsquawk