EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Choppy action in crude and mixed trade across metals ahead of Trump

Crude Oil: WTI Sep -0.1%, Brent Oct -0.1%

• Relatively choppy trade within tight ranges amid a lack of fresh fundamentals for the crude complex.


• Overall price action is lacklustre following the prior day's declines and recent OPEC+ output hike decision, but is off the prior day's lows with President Trump threatening to substantially raise tariffs on India for its massive purchases of Russian oil and reselling in the open market.


• On that note, Indian officials have reportedly struggled to engage in diplomatic discussions with the US, via Bloomberg, citing sources, due to unfilled foreign policy roles in the Trump administration.


• In terms of geopolitics, Israeli PM Netanyahu will convene a meeting on Gaza and the hostage deal, via journalist Stein citing an Israeli official; the official adds, US Envoy Witkoff returned to the US with "a broad consensus that a deal must include all of the hostages". The meeting will be to discuss how to instruct the military to meet the Israeli PM's war goals in Gaza. Israeli PM Netanyahu is leaning towards expanding the Gaza offensive and seizing the entire enclave, according to Israel's N12.


• After hours, the API will report weekly energy inventory figures, where headline crude stocks are seen posting a draw of 1.8mln bbls, distillates a build of 1.1mln bbls, and gasoline stocks are seen drawing down by 1.1mln bbls.


• Note, US President Trump to be interviewed on CNBC at 13:00 BST/08:00 EDT - oil traders will be eyeing any further updates on Russia alongside trade updates from India and China.


• WTI resides in a 65.77-66.39/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 68.29-698.87/bbl range.

Precious Metals: Gold -0.2%, Silver +0.1%, Palladium -1.5%

• Mostly lower trade as the dollar regains some composure with DXY back on a 99.00 handle.


• Macro newsflow has been light today thus far, but some action may arise from US President Trump, who is due to give an interview on CNBC.


• Price action to final PMIs in Europe has been muted, ahead, US Services ISM is expected to rise to 51.5 from 50.8. RCM/TIPP's economic optimism data is also due. The Atlanta Fed will update its GDPnow tracking estimate for Q3, which is currently modelling growth of 2.1%.


• Price action this morning has been contained for the yellow metal, with support found yesterday near its 50 DMA (USD 3,344.59/oz today), as spot gold resides in a USD 3,365.79-3,382.37/oz range at the time of writing.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper +0.4%

• Mostly softer trade across base metals amid the firmer dollar, although macro newsflow this morning has been rather light.


• Overnight, copper was kept afloat alongside the mostly positive risk environment and after the latest PMI data from China, which was somewhat mixed but showed an acceleration in China's services industry.


• Traders look ahead to US Services PMI, although some action may come from US President Trump's interview on CNBC at 13:00 BST.


• 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,659.95-9,751.00/t range.

05 Aug 2025 - 10:20- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk