EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: Base metals underpinned by hopes of Chinese stimulus

Crude Oil: WTI May +0.2%, Brent Jun +0.2%

• The crude complex is modestly firmer on the day in choppy trade, and into the weekend after morning gains pared amid further trade retaliation from China.


• Early gains were mostly booked in the morning upon arrival of European traders, with some consolidation ahead of a risk-packed weekend and the remaining session, featuring potential Trump tariff updates and diplomatic talks in the Middle East involving Russia-Ukraine and Iran-US.


• This morning, China raised additional tariffs on US goods to 125% from 84%, calling it a “number game,” and signalling no intent to back down - an update which sparked risk aversion across all assets.


• Another contributor helping to cushion crude is the Dollar, which is under significant pressure, with DXY beneath the 100.00 level for the first time since July 2023, trading at 99.20 at the time of writing.


• Specifically, Brent trades towards the lower end of its USD 62.77-64.37/bbl range, and WTI the same, in a USD 59.44-61.11/bbl daily range.

Nat Gas: Dutch TTF -0.9%

• Dutch TTF is also lower on the session, resisting further growth induced losses, and ahead of updates from Russia-Ukraine talks.


• The European benchmark faced pressure on updates from the Chinese Finance, and Commerce Ministries which saw it erase gains made at the open, slipping near to 5% as it now prints fresh session lows of EUR 32.50/MWh at the time of writing.


• On the geopolitical front, we are yet to see any updates from the US on the Russia talks, though US Envoy Witkoff has arrived in Russia to meet with Russian President Putin, with Axios noting that if no ceasefire is reached by the end of the month, Trump could move forward with additional sanctions on Russia.

Precious Metals: Gold +1.5%, Silver +0.8%, Palladium +1.6%

• Firmer trade across precious metals with the complex bolstered by the demise of the Dollar coupled by flight to quality amid the latest chapter in the trade saga.


• To recap, China raised its tariffs on the US to 125% from 84% in a retaliatory move.


• Spot gold topped USD 3,200/oz for the first time overnight and continues grinding higher at the time of writing, currently in a USD 3,177.26-3,227.45/oz intraday range.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper +2.0%

• Modest gains across the base metals space amid ongoing hopes of Chinese economic support in the face of US tariffs.


• The complex saw modest downside on news that China raised its tariffs on the US to 125% from 84% in a retaliatory move, but recovered off those lows.


• 3M LME copper trades on either side of USD 9,000/t and resides in a USD 8,934.65-9,170.80/t range.


• Dalian iron ore ended daytime trade +0.7% but were on track for weekly losses amid the US-China trade spat.

11 Apr 2025 - 10:05- MetalsGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk